Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Princeton 31.5, Wagner 14.5 at Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Princeton wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17 points and 45.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Princeton is 2-1, scoring 23.7 and allowing 9.3 points per game (+14.4 per game). Wagner is 1-4, scoring 12.4 and allowing 43.2 points per game (-30.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Princeton by 40 and Wagner by 6 about 80% of the time.
Wagner gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Princeton is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Princeton 28, Wagner 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2 points and the total by 4.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Princeton / Wagner) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Princeton -22.5 → Princeton -25.5 | 43.5 | -5500 / +1300 |
| DraftKings | Princeton -22.5 → Princeton -25.5 | 43.5 | -5500 / +1300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wagner win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Princeton -17 | 45.9 | 13% |
| Market consensus | Princeton -25.5 | 43.5 | 7% |
| Blended projection | Princeton -24.5 | 44.9 | 5% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wagner win probability
- model 13% · market (no-vig) 7% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Princeton -17 · market Princeton -25.5 · difference +8.5 pts (Wagner view)
- Total
- model 45.9 · market 43.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 8.5 pts more toward Wagner than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Princeton 31.5, Wagner 14.5 | Princeton 87%right winner | 2.0 | 4.9 |
| New formula | Princeton 31.1, Wagner 15.9 | Princeton 84%right winner | 0.3 | 6.0 |
Final: Princeton 28, Wagner 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Princeton vs Wagner: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Princeton | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.8 | 16.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 24.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.03 | 4.36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 137.0 | 199.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 200.4 | 95.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.1 | 189.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.0 | 210.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 2.58 |
| Stat | Princeton | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 38.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.2% | 45.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 9.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.02 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 4.27 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1 | 67.5 |
| Stat | Princeton | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.8% | 42.0% |
| Passing success rate | 37.2% | 33.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 25.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.3% | 37.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.8% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 64.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Princeton schedule · Wagner schedule · all Week 6 projections
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