Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rhode Island 28, UAlbany 19.8 at Centreville Bank Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Rhode Island wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.2 points and 47.8 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
UAlbany is 4-3, scoring 25.1 and allowing 18.9 points per game (+6.2 per game). Rhode Island is 4-3, scoring 25 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+1.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UAlbany by 14 and Rhode Island by 31 about 80% of the time.
Rhode Island gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rhode Island by about 6.1.
Result: UAlbany 38, Rhode Island 21. UAlbany won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 25.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UAlbany 19.8, Rhode Island 28.0 | Rhode Island 70%wrong winner | 25.2 | 11.2 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: UAlbany 38, Rhode Island 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UAlbany vs Rhode Island: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UAlbany | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.8 | 31.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.3 | 21.1 |
| Yards per play | 4.73 | 6.75 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.52 | 5.15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 114.7 | 158.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 200.7 | 296.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.6 | 175.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 193.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.64 | 1.21 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.91 | 2.29 |
| Stat | UAlbany | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 35.7% | 43.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 15.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 11.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 10.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.90 | 3.58 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05 | 4.23 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6 | 67.4 |
| Stat | UAlbany | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8% | 45.2% |
| Passing success rate | 32.9% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.5% | 17.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3% | 34.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5% | 26.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.7% | 45.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2% | 34.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.1% | 60.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.8% | 60.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UAlbany schedule · Rhode Island schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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