Matchup analysis
Our model projects UAlbany 30, Maine 16 at Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: UAlbany wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.5 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Maine is 1-7 against the 63rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 13.4 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-16.2 per game). UAlbany is 5-3 against the 106th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.8 and allowing 19.1 points per game (+7.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Maine by 9 and UAlbany by 36 about 80% of the time.
UAlbany gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UAlbany by about 11.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Maine vs UAlbany: stat comparison
| Stat | Maine | UAlbany |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 13.4 | 26.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6 | 19.1 |
| Yards per play | 4.50 | 5.39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.58 | 5.03 |
| Rushing yards per game | 109.6 | 198.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 181.5 | 156.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.9 | 128.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 240.8 | 187.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13 | 2.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.13 | 2.50 |
| Stat | Maine | UAlbany |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 33.2% | 44.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7% | 40.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9% | 8.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 12.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 17.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.75 | 3.30 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.65 | 3.51 |
| Average starting field position | opp 17 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 14 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 65.8 |
| Stat | Maine | UAlbany |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 28.9% | 47.5% |
| Passing success rate | 33.6% | 42.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.2% | 18.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.3% | 31.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 30.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.0% | 43.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2% | 40.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.7% | 50.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 34.6% | 67.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maine schedule · UAlbany schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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