Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UAlbany 26.2, Delaware State 23 at Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: UAlbany wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 49.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Delaware State is 3-2, scoring 25.4 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-4.4 per game). UAlbany is 2-3, scoring 20 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+0.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Delaware State by 19 and UAlbany by 26 about 80% of the time.
UAlbany gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UAlbany by about 1.1.
Result: Delaware State 3, UAlbany 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.8 points and the total by 18.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Delaware State / UAlbany) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UAlbany -2.5 → UAlbany -1.5 | 45.5 | +106 / -131 |
| DraftKings | UAlbany -2.5 → UAlbany -1.5 | 45.5 | +106 / -131 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UAlbany win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UAlbany -3 | 49.2 | 58% |
| Market consensus | UAlbany -1.5 | 45.5 | 54% |
| Blended projection | UAlbany -2 | 46.9 | 55% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UAlbany win probability
- model 58% · market (no-vig) 54% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model UAlbany -3.2 · market UAlbany -1.5 · difference +1.7 pts (UAlbany view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 45.5 · difference +3.7
Model margin is 1.7 pts more toward UAlbany than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Delaware State 23.0, UAlbany 26.2 | UAlbany 58%right winner | 21.8 | 18.2 |
| New formula | Delaware State 23.0, UAlbany 25.9 | UAlbany 57%right winner | 22.1 | 18.0 |
Final: Delaware State 3, UAlbany 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Delaware State vs UAlbany: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Delaware State | UAlbany |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3 | 16.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 32.3 |
| Yards per play | 7.06 | 4.73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.48 | 5.52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 306.6 | 114.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 163.0 | 200.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 151.7 | 183.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 293.6 | 216.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 0.64 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 2.91 |
| Stat | Delaware State | UAlbany |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 41.2% | 35.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 44.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.4% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.8% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.1% | 14.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.32 | 2.90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.75 | 4.05 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5 | 66.6 |
| Stat | Delaware State | UAlbany |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.22 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.6% | 37.8% |
| Passing success rate | 39.0% | 32.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.1% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0% | 28.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3% | 29.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.7% | 30.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5% | 39.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.8% | 53.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.8% | 61.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Delaware State schedule · UAlbany schedule · all Week 5 projections
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