Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Buffalo 41.3, UAlbany 9.3 at Broadview Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Buffalo wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 32 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
UAlbany is 1-0, scoring 28 and allowing 14 points per game (+14 per game). Buffalo has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
UAlbany plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Buffalo's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buffalo by 9 and Buffalo by 55 about 80% of the time.
Buffalo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Buffalo by about 29.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UAlbany 17, Buffalo 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 28 points and the total by 12.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UAlbany / Buffalo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Buffalo -24.5 → Buffalo -18.5 | 48.5 → 47.5 | +650 / -1000 |
| DraftKings | Buffalo -24.5 → Buffalo -18.5 | 48.5 → 47.5 | +650 / -1000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Buffalo win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Buffalo -32 | 50.5 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Buffalo -18.5 | 47.5 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Buffalo -21 | 48.7 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Buffalo win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Buffalo -32 · market Buffalo -18.5 · difference +13.5 pts (Buffalo view)
- Total
- model 50.5 · market 47.5 · difference +3.0
Model margin is 13.5 pts more toward Buffalo than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UAlbany 9.3, Buffalo 41.3 | Buffalo 98%right winner | 28.0 | 12.5 |
| New formula | UAlbany 12.9, Buffalo 38.4 | Buffalo 93%right winner | 21.5 | 13.3 |
Final: UAlbany 17, Buffalo 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UAlbany vs Buffalo: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UAlbany | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.8 | 24.0#93 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.3 | 23.5#54 |
| Yards per play | 4.73 | 5.43#107 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.52 | 5.19#25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 114.7 | 144.8#100 |
| Net passing yards per game | 200.7 | 229.1#61 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.6 | 170.4#82 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 186.3#24 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.67#131 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.64 | 0.75#114 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.75#12 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.91 | 2.08#92 |
| Stat | UAlbany | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.10#124 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.00#60 |
| Success rate | 35.7% | 37.7%#121 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4% | 40.8%#61 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 11.2%#106 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 9.5%#13 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 13.5%#45 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 14.8%#121 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.90 | 3.55#115 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05 | 3.52#34 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 31#37 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | own 29#68 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6 | 68.8#42 |
| Stat | UAlbany | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.10#127 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.11#118 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.00#66 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.01#64 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8% | 39.8%#104 |
| Passing success rate | 32.9% | 37.5%#106 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.5% | 18.0%#64 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3% | 25.7%#119 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5% | 29.5%#71 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.7% | 37.9%#101 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2% | 38.3%#48 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.1% | 46.9%#125 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.8% | 59.3%#64 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UAlbany schedule · Buffalo schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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