Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee Tech 34.8, Monmouth 29.5 at Tucker Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Tennessee Tech wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 64.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Monmouth has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Tennessee Tech has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Monmouth by 17 and Tennessee Tech by 28 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tennessee Tech by about 3.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Monmouth 14, Tennessee Tech 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18.7 points and the total by 12.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Monmouth / Tennessee Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee Tech -8.5 | 58.5 | +257 / -340 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee Tech -8.5 | 58.5 | +257 / -340 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee Tech -5.5 | 64.2 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee Tech -8.5 | 58.5 | 73% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee Tech -8 | 59.0 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee Tech win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 73% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee Tech -5.3 · market Tennessee Tech -8.5 · difference -3.2 pts (Tennessee Tech view)
- Total
- model 64.2 · market 58.5 · difference +5.7
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Monmouth than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Monmouth 29.5, Tennessee Tech 34.8 | Tennessee Tech 64%right winner | 18.7 | 12.2 |
| New formula | Monmouth 22.4, Tennessee Tech 40.1 | Tennessee Tech 85%right winner | 6.3 | 10.5 |
Final: Monmouth 14, Tennessee Tech 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Monmouth vs Tennessee Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Monmouth | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0 | 37.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.8 | 18.7 |
| Yards per play | 6.97 | 6.79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 4.71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 217.6 | 196.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 339.7 | 232.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.7 | 116.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.3 | 207.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 3.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Monmouth | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 48.3% | 43.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 40.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.3% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33 | 2.85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07 | 4.14 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 79.9 | 63.2 |
| Stat | Monmouth | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.4% | 45.9% |
| Passing success rate | 49.2% | 45.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 12.4% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 30.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.8% | 43.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.9% | 45.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.9% | 62.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Monmouth schedule · Tennessee Tech schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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