Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Dartmouth 35.9, Monmouth 23.7 at Memorial Field (Dartmouth) in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Dartmouth wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.2 points and 59.6 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Monmouth is 2-2, scoring 21.8 and allowing 32.8 points per game (-11 per game). Dartmouth is 0-1, scoring 20 and allowing 24 points per game (-4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Monmouth by 10 and Dartmouth by 35 about 80% of the time.
Dartmouth gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Dartmouth by about 10.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Monmouth 31, Dartmouth 28. Monmouth won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Monmouth / Dartmouth) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Dartmouth -2.5 → Dartmouth -3 | 53.5 → 51.5 | +128 / -160 |
| DraftKings | Dartmouth -2.5 → Dartmouth -3 | 53.5 → 51.5 | +128 / -160 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Dartmouth win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Dartmouth -12 | 59.6 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Dartmouth -3 | 51.5 | 58% |
| Blended projection | Dartmouth -4.5 | 52.6 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Dartmouth win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 58% · difference +20 pts
- Margin
- model Dartmouth -12.2 · market Dartmouth -3 · difference +9.2 pts (Dartmouth view)
- Total
- model 59.6 · market 51.5 · difference +8.1
Model margin is 9.2 pts more toward Dartmouth than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Monmouth 23.7, Dartmouth 35.9 | Dartmouth 79%wrong winner | 15.2 | 0.6 |
| New formula | Monmouth 23.8, Dartmouth 35.0 | Dartmouth 75%wrong winner | 14.2 | 0.3 |
Final: Monmouth 31, Dartmouth 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Monmouth vs Dartmouth: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Monmouth | Dartmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0 | 26.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.8 | 21.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.97 | 6.09 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 5.42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 217.6 | 164.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 339.7 | 219.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.7 | 115.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.3 | 241.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 1.60 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 0.90 |
| Stat | Monmouth | Dartmouth |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 48.3% | 45.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 43.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 13.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.3% | 13.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07 | 3.02 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 79.9 | 63.1 |
| Stat | Monmouth | Dartmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.4% | 48.2% |
| Passing success rate | 49.2% | 46.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 12.4% | 21.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5% | 37.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.8% | 55.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8% | 44.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.9% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.9% | 50.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Monmouth schedule · Dartmouth schedule · all Week 4 projections
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