Matchup analysis
Our model projects Monmouth 36, Bryant 21 at Kessler Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Monmouth wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.7 points and 57.3 combined points.
Bryant is 5-3 against the 94th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.6 and allowing 22.6 points per game (-3 per game). Monmouth is 6-2 against the 84th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.3 and allowing 29.1 points per game (+2.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bryant by 8 and Monmouth by 37 about 80% of the time.
Monmouth gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Monmouth by about 12.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Bryant vs Monmouth: stat comparison
| Stat | Bryant | Monmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.6 | 31.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.6 | 29.1 |
| Yards per play | 4.93 | 5.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.92 | 5.75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.6 | 188.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 172.5 | 239.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 194.6 | 158.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 180.4 | 210.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.38 | 2.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63 | 0.25 |
| Stat | Bryant | Monmouth |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 42.5% | 45.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1% | 37.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 10.3% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 10.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.42 | 3.55 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.93 | 4.67 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.1 | 73.6 |
| Stat | Bryant | Monmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | +0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4% | 48.6% |
| Passing success rate | 45.3% | 46.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3% | 15.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6% | 34.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5% | 32.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.9% | 51.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0% | 44.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.6% | 53.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.5% | 69.3% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bryant schedule · Monmouth schedule · all Week 9 projections
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