Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Carolina Central 33.9, North Carolina A&T 21.3 at O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: North Carolina Central wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.6 points and 55.2 combined points.
North Carolina A&T is 0-2, scoring 8.5 and allowing 38 points per game (-29.5 per game). North Carolina Central is 1-1, scoring 28.5 and allowing 24 points per game (+4.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Carolina A&T by 10 and North Carolina Central by 35 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina Central gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Carolina Central by about 10.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Carolina A&T 22, North Carolina Central 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.6 points and the total by 3.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Carolina A&T / North Carolina Central) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Carolina Central -24.5 | 55.5 | +1040 / -2800 |
| DraftKings | North Carolina Central -24.5 | 55.5 | +1040 / -2800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina Central win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Carolina Central -12.5 | 55.2 | 80% |
| Market consensus | North Carolina Central -24.5 | 55.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | North Carolina Central -22.5 | 55.9 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina Central win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model North Carolina Central -12.6 · market North Carolina Central -24.5 · difference -11.9 pts (North Carolina Central view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 55.5 · difference -0.3
Model margin is 11.9 pts more toward North Carolina A&T than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Carolina A&T 21.3, North Carolina Central 33.9 | North Carolina Central 80%right winner | 4.6 | 3.2 |
| New formula | North Carolina A&T 15.1, North Carolina Central 42.3 | North Carolina Central 96%right winner | 19.2 | 5.4 |
Final: North Carolina A&T 22, North Carolina Central 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Carolina A&T vs North Carolina Central: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Carolina A&T | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 33.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 43.6 | 25.7 |
| Yards per play | 4.74 | 6.51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.14 | 6.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.8 | 164.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.1 | 270.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 210.6 | 168.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 244.2 | 201.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 3.58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.75 | 1.92 |
| Stat | North Carolina A&T | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 42.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 39.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3% | 13.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.3% | 16.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.5% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.52 | 3.39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.47 | 4.68 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.2 | 66.8 |
| Stat | North Carolina A&T | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.3% | 42.4% |
| Passing success rate | 34.1% | 46.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.2% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.5% | 33.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4% | 28.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1% | 45.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6% | 39.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5% | 46.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.2% | 74.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina A&T schedule · North Carolina Central schedule · all Week 2 projections
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