Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Morgan State 29.7, Howard 22.1 at Hughes Stadium (MD) in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Morgan State wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.6 points and 51.7 combined points.
Howard is 3-4, scoring 19.6 and allowing 31.3 points per game (-11.7 per game). Morgan State is 5-2, scoring 28.9 and allowing 27.1 points per game (+1.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Howard by 15 and Morgan State by 30 about 80% of the time.
Morgan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Morgan State by about 5.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Howard 26, Morgan State 20. Howard won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Howard 22.1, Morgan State 29.7 | Morgan State 69%wrong winner | 13.6 | 5.7 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Howard 26, Morgan State 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Howard vs Morgan State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Howard | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.8 | 23.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6 | 26.6 |
| Yards per play | 4.77 | 5.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.82 | 5.67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.7 | 179.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.5 | 160.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.4 | 148.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 155.7 | 204.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.09 | 1.27 |
| Sacks per game | 2.36 | 2.91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.09 | 2.45 |
| Stat | Howard | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 36.2% | 38.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 43.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 14.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 15.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 3.87 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5 | 64.1 |
| Stat | Howard | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.25 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1% | 42.4% |
| Passing success rate | 34.0% | 34.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 22.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 31.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1% | 40.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3% | 40.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.2% | 68.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.9% | 65.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Howard schedule · Morgan State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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