Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Towson 26.3, Morgan State 24.8 at Johnny Unitas Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Towson wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 51.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Morgan State is 2-1, scoring 26.3 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+0.6 per game). Towson is 0-3, scoring 14 and allowing 36 points per game (-22 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Morgan State by 21 and Towson by 24 about 80% of the time.
Towson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Morgan State would be favoured by 0.6.
Result: Morgan State 41, Towson 26. Morgan State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Morgan State / Towson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Towson -10 → Towson -8.5 | 44.5 | +295 / -400 |
| DraftKings | Towson -10 → Towson -8.5 | 44.5 | +295 / -400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Towson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Towson -1.5 | 51.1 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Towson -8.5 | 44.5 | 76% |
| Blended projection | Towson -7.5 | 46.1 | 69% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Towson win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference -22 pts
- Margin
- model Towson -1.5 · market Towson -8.5 · difference -7.0 pts (Towson view)
- Total
- model 51.1 · market 44.5 · difference +6.6
Model margin is 7.0 pts more toward Morgan State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Morgan State 24.8, Towson 26.3 | Towson 54%wrong winner | 16.5 | 15.9 |
| New formula | Morgan State 25.1, Towson 26.8 | Towson 55%wrong winner | 16.7 | 15.0 |
Final: Morgan State 41, Towson 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Morgan State vs Towson: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Morgan State | Towson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.3 | 26.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 | 25.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.30 | 6.01 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.0 | 110.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 160.6 | 237.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.6 | 179.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.7 | 222.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 0.91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.27 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 2.91 | 1.27 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.45 | 1.45 |
| Stat | Morgan State | Towson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 38.4% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 46.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 12.6% |
| Havoc rate | 14.6% | 8.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6% | 9.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 2.94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87 | 4.05 |
| Average starting field position | opp 15 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1 | 57.9 |
| Stat | Morgan State | Towson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4% | 42.3% |
| Passing success rate | 34.6% | 40.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7% | 39.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 41.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.8% | 45.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.8% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.3% | 61.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morgan State schedule · Towson schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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