Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Morgan State 28.4, Tennessee State 24.2 at Nissan Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Morgan State wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 52.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Morgan State is 5-1, scoring 31 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.5 per game). Tennessee State is 1-5, scoring 18 and allowing 35.8 points per game (-17.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Morgan State by 27 and Tennessee State by 18 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Morgan State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Morgan State 16, Tennessee State 25. Tennessee State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Morgan State / Tennessee State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Morgan State -5.5 → Morgan State -6 | 51.5 → 50.5 | -227 / +178 |
| DraftKings | Morgan State -5.5 → Morgan State -6 | 51.5 → 50.5 | -227 / +178 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Morgan State -4 | 52.6 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Morgan State -6 | 50.5 | 34% |
| Blended projection | Morgan State -5.5 | 51.4 | 35% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee State win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Morgan State -4.2 · market Morgan State -6 · difference +1.8 pts (Tennessee State view)
- Total
- model 52.6 · market 50.5 · difference +2.1
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Tennessee State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Morgan State 28.4, Tennessee State 24.2 | Morgan State 61%wrong winner | 13.2 | 11.6 |
| New formula | Morgan State 30.4, Tennessee State 22.1 | Morgan State 71%wrong winner | 17.3 | 11.5 |
Final: Morgan State 16, Tennessee State 25. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Morgan State vs Tennessee State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Morgan State | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.3 | 12.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 | 26.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.30 | 4.72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67 | 5.44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.0 | 120.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 160.6 | 175.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.6 | 195.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.7 | 176.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 2.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 2.91 | 2.17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.45 | 2.75 |
| Stat | Morgan State | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.24 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 38.4% | 30.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 44.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 9.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6% | 19.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 2.44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 15 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1 | 62.8 |
| Stat | Morgan State | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4% | 30.3% |
| Passing success rate | 34.6% | 30.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 31.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2% | 23.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 30.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.8% | 35.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.8% | 51.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.3% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morgan State schedule · Tennessee State schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.