Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Carolina State 36, Morgan State 22 at Hughes Stadium (MD) in Week 9. That is a solid edge: South Carolina State wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.4 points and 58.2 combined points.
South Carolina State is 6-2 against the 155th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40.9 and allowing 17.6 points per game (+23.3 per game). Morgan State is 5-3 against the 167th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.8 and allowing 27 points per game (+0.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina State by 36 and Morgan State by 9 about 80% of the time.
Morgan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Carolina State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPNU.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
South Carolina State vs Morgan State: stat comparison
| Stat | South Carolina State | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.9 | 27.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.6 | 27.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.78 | 6.92 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.87 | 6.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 220.9 | 131.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.6 | 242.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 119.1 | 144.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 157.0 | 269.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 43.4% | 41.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.4% | 45.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1% | 14.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 18.1% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 4.06 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43 | 3.88 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.4 | 54.0 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.24 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.6% | 46.4% |
| Passing success rate | 40.4% | 40.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.7% | 18.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 29.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.4% | 36.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0% | 32.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.0% | 45.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 64.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 63.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Carolina State schedule · Morgan State schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.