Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Carolina Central 33.4, Elizabeth City State 23.1 at O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: North Carolina Central wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.3 points and 56.5 combined points.
Elizabeth City State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. North Carolina Central is 0-1, scoring 30 and allowing 42 points per game (-12 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Elizabeth City State by 12 and North Carolina Central by 33 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina Central gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Carolina Central by about 8.2.
Result: Elizabeth City State 6, North Carolina Central 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.7 points and the total by 23.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Elizabeth City State 23.1, North Carolina Central 33.4 | North Carolina Central 75%right winner | 10.7 | 23.5 |
| New formula | Elizabeth City State 21.6, North Carolina Central 36.5 | North Carolina Central 81%right winner | 6.1 | 25.1 |
Final: Elizabeth City State 6, North Carolina Central 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Elizabeth City State vs North Carolina Central: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Elizabeth City State | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.0 | 33.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 25.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 6.51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02 | 6.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.0 | 164.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 178.0 | 270.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 335.0 | 168.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 56.0 | 201.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 3.58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.92 |
| Stat | Elizabeth City State | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 42.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 39.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8% | 13.1% |
| Havoc rate | 10.2% | 16.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.3% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.68 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0 | 66.8 |
| Stat | Elizabeth City State | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.6% | 42.4% |
| Passing success rate | 35.5% | 46.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.6% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.6% | 33.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.1% | 28.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.7% | 45.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5% | 39.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 46.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 74.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Elizabeth City State schedule · North Carolina Central schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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