Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Carolina 39.9, North Carolina Central 13.8 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: East Carolina wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 26.1 points and 53.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
North Carolina Central is 2-2, scoring 26.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (-1.7 per game). East Carolina is 1-2, scoring 18 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-12.7 per game).
North Carolina Central plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why East Carolina's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Carolina by 4 and East Carolina by 49 about 80% of the time.
East Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour East Carolina by about 24. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Carolina Central 9, East Carolina 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.9 points and the total by 2.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Carolina Central / East Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Carolina -35.5 → East Carolina -37.5 | 55.5 → 58.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
| DraftKings | East Carolina -34.5 → East Carolina -37.5 | 54.5 → 58.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
| Bovada | East Carolina -36.5 → East Carolina -37.5 | 56.5 → 58.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | East Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | East Carolina -26 | 53.7 | 96% |
| Market consensus | East Carolina -37.5 | 58.5 | 98% |
| Blended projection | East Carolina -36 | 58.4 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- East Carolina win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 98% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model East Carolina -26.1 · market East Carolina -37.5 · difference -11.4 pts (East Carolina view)
- Total
- model 53.7 · market 58.5 · difference -4.8
Model margin is 11.4 pts more toward North Carolina Central than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Carolina Central 13.8, East Carolina 39.9 | East Carolina 96%right winner | 6.9 | 2.7 |
| New formula | North Carolina Central 12.2, East Carolina 41.2 | East Carolina 97%right winner | 4.0 | 2.5 |
Final: North Carolina Central 9, East Carolina 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Carolina Central vs East Carolina: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | North Carolina Central | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.8 | 18.0#125 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.5 | 30.7#115 |
| Yards per play | 5.50 | 4.96#127 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74 | 5.77#93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.8 | 131.0#119 |
| Net passing yards per game | 142.3 | 164.7#117 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.3 | 184.7#115 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.0 | 221.0#90 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.00#96 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.67#110 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.00#123 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.25 | 2.33#109 |
| Stat | North Carolina Central | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.13#133 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | -0.02#43 |
| Success rate | 38.9% | 36.2%#126 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5% | 38.9%#56 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 9.8%#122 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.7% | 14.2%#115 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1% | 11.6%#114 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.8% | 15.3%#112 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.90 | 2.86#134 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.42 | 4.05#81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 26#125 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#99 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.3 | 59.7#112 |
| Stat | North Carolina Central | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.08#126 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.17#129 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.03#50 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | -0.00#61 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.0% | 37.9%#111 |
| Passing success rate | 34.0% | 34.2%#122 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2% | 20.0%#111 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7% | 18.0%#135 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.3% | 38.0%#124 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4% | 14.7%#138 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.3% | 44.4%#107 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.9% | 27.3%#138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.4% | 69.2%#106 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina Central schedule · East Carolina schedule · all Week 4 projections
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