Matchup analysis
Our model projects Richmond 33, William & Mary 18 at Robins Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Richmond wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.2 points and 51.3 combined points.
William & Mary is 3-5 against the 91st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.1 and allowing 36 points per game (-14.9 per game). Richmond is 6-2 against the 116th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.9 and allowing 24.4 points per game (-3.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between William & Mary by 7 and Richmond by 38 about 80% of the time.
Richmond gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Richmond by about 13.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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William & Mary vs Richmond: stat comparison
| Stat | William & Mary | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.1 | 20.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.0 | 24.4 |
| Yards per play | 4.86 | 4.97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.77 | 5.69 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.1 | 139.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 178.0 | 183.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 256.1 | 161.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 217.0 | 181.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.38 | 3.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.38 | 1.50 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 32.8% | 38.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.6% | 38.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6% | 13.2% |
| Havoc rate | 12.2% | 16.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.4% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 3.36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.66 | 3.77 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3 | 65.1 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.1% | 45.0% |
| Passing success rate | 29.7% | 36.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.1% | 19.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.3% | 28.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8% | 28.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.8% | 34.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.5% | 34.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.6% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.1% | 64.3% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: William & Mary schedule · Richmond schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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