2026 schedule
Richmond Spiders
2026 season so far
Richmond is 6-2 against the 116th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.9 and allowing 24.4 points per game (-3.5 per game).
Richmond plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Holy Cross in Week 9. We project Richmond 22, Holy Cross 25 — Richmond wins 42% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Bucknell Bison
0-1 · SOS #128
Win 35-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Richmond by 8.6
Total 56
DraftKings
RICH -12.5
Total 48.5
Final Richmond by 21. Richmond beat the spread. 49 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Richmond -12.5 (open Richmond -10.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML +420 / -620 · Richmond 82% no-vig · model vs market -3.9 pts, -10 pct pts (Richmond view)
ESPN+ Robins Stadium - at
Howard Bison
1-1 · SOS #35
Win 28-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Howard by 1.2
Total 46.2
DraftKings
RICH -14
Total 43.5
Final Richmond by 7. Howard beat the spread. 49 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Richmond -14 (open Richmond -14.5) · O/U 43.5 (open 45.5) · ML -680 / +453 · Howard 17% no-vig · model vs market +15.2 pts, +36 pct pts (Howard view)
Greene StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit - at
NC State Wolfpack
1-1 · SOS #74
Loss 0-73
Week 2
Our number· pregame
NC State by 34.3
Total 50.7
DraftKings
NCSU -33.5
Total 50.5
Final NC State by 73. NC State beat the spread. 73 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: NC State -33.25 (open NC State -30.75) · O/U 50.5 (open 49) · ML +2000 / -6500 · NC State 95% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +3 pct pts (NC State view)
ESPNU Carter-Finley StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Georgetown Hoyas
0-2 · SOS #143
Win 24-21
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Richmond by 11.8
Total 57.2
DraftKings
RICH -15.5
Total 45.5
Final Richmond by 3. Georgetown beat the spread. 45 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Richmond -15.5 (open Richmond -12.5) · O/U 45.5 (open 47.5) · ML +397 / -575 · Richmond 81% no-vig · model vs market -3.7 pts, -3 pct pts (Richmond view)
ESPN+ Robins Stadium - vs
Furman Paladins
2-3 · SOS #28
Win 13-9
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Furman by 0.6
Total 46.8
DraftKings
RICH -3.5
Total 43.5
Final Richmond by 4. Richmond beat the spread. 22 points — under the 43.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Richmond -3.5 · O/U 43.5 (open 45.5) · ML +108 / -135 · Richmond 54% no-vig · model vs market -4.1 pts, -6 pct pts (Richmond view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 70°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOFP)ESPN+ Robins StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit - at
Lafayette Leopards
1-4 · SOS #131
Win 40-31
Week 5
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 55.1
DraftKings
RICH -6.5
Total 43.5
Final Richmond by 9. Richmond beat the spread. 71 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Richmond -6.5 · O/U 43.5 (open 42.5) · ML -249 / +195 · Lafayette 32% no-vig · model vs market +6.6 pts, +18 pct pts (Lafayette view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 13 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABE)ESPN+ Fisher StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit - at
Fordham Rams
2-5 · SOS #40
Loss 14-20
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Richmond by 5
Total 48.8
DraftKings
RICH -8.5
Total 45.5
Final Fordham by 6. Fordham beat the spread. 34 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Richmond -8.5 · O/U 45.5 · ML -355 / +267 · Fordham 26% no-vig · model vs market +3.5 pts, +11 pct pts (Fordham view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 9 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLGA)ESPN+ Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Colgate Raiders
4-4 · SOS #85
Win 13-6
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Colgate by 2.8
Total 46.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Richmond by 7. 19 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 61°F, Wind 3 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOFP)ESPN+ Robins StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Holy Cross Crusaders
3-5 · SOS #81
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 22-25 · 42%
Our number
Holy Cross by 3
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 54°F, Wind 7 mph NW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Fitton FieldExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Villanova Wildcats
4-4 · SOS #87
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 21-27 · 35%
Our number
Villanova by 6
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Villanova StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games - vs
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
6-2 · SOS #155
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 18-30 · 23%
Our number
Lehigh by 12
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Robins Stadium - vs
William & Mary Tribe
3-5 · SOS #91
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 33-18 · 84%
Our number
Richmond by 15
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Robins StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Richmond Spiders stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-22.5
Adj. offense
13.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 20.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 24.4 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 4.97 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.69 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 139.9 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 183.8 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 161.6 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 181.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.88 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 3.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.02 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.07 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 38.8% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.1% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.2% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 16.7% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.3% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.36 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.77 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 65.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.12 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.10 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 45.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 36.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.2% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 28.1% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.0% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 34.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 34.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 64.3% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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