Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Richmond 26.9, Fordham 21.9 at Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field in Week 6. That is a lean: Richmond wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 48.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Richmond is 5-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 28.2 points per game (-4.9 per game). Fordham is 1-5, scoring 14.8 and allowing 33.2 points per game (-18.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Richmond by 28 and Fordham by 18 about 80% of the time.
Fordham gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Richmond is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Richmond 14, Fordham 20. Fordham won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 11 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Richmond / Fordham) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Richmond -8.5 | 45.5 | -355 / +267 |
| DraftKings | Richmond -8.5 | 45.5 | -355 / +267 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Fordham win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Richmond -5 | 48.8 | 37% |
| Market consensus | Richmond -8.5 | 45.5 | 26% |
| Blended projection | Richmond -8 | 46.8 | 29% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Fordham win probability
- model 37% · market (no-vig) 26% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Richmond -5 · market Richmond -8.5 · difference +3.5 pts (Fordham view)
- Total
- model 48.8 · market 45.5 · difference +3.3
Model margin is 3.5 pts more toward Fordham than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Richmond 26.9, Fordham 21.9 | Richmond 63%wrong winner | 11.0 | 14.8 |
| New formula | Richmond 27.2, Fordham 21.9 | Richmond 63%wrong winner | 11.2 | 15.1 |
Final: Richmond 14, Fordham 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Richmond vs Fordham: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Richmond | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9 | 15.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 33.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.41 | 4.85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.86 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.6 | 112.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.9 | 242.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 168.8 | 146.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 157.1 | 289.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17 | 4.33 |
| Stat | Richmond | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 36.7% | 35.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 11.2% |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.7% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 2.78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83 | 4.74 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.2 | 73.2 |
| Stat | Richmond | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 39.8% |
| Passing success rate | 36.7% | 33.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.5% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.4% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.4% | 35.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.3% | 39.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.7% | 49.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.6% | 69.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Richmond schedule · Fordham schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.