Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lafayette 27.6, Richmond 27.5 at Fisher Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Lafayette wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 55.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Richmond is 4-1, scoring 20 and allowing 27.6 points per game (-7.6 per game). Lafayette is 1-3, scoring 21 and allowing 35.8 points per game (-14.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Richmond by 22 and Lafayette by 23 about 80% of the time.
Lafayette gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Richmond would be favoured by 2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Richmond 40, Lafayette 31. Richmond won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Richmond / Lafayette) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Richmond -6.5 | 42.5 → 43.5 | -249 / +195 |
| DraftKings | Richmond -6.5 | 42.5 → 43.5 | -249 / +195 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Lafayette win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pick'em | 55.1 | 50% |
| Market consensus | Richmond -6.5 | 43.5 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Richmond -5.5 | 45.5 | 36% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Lafayette win probability
- model 50% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference +18 pts
- Margin
- model Lafayette -0.1 · market Richmond -6.5 · difference +6.6 pts (Lafayette view)
- Total
- model 55.1 · market 43.5 · difference +11.6
Model margin is 6.6 pts more toward Lafayette than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Richmond 27.5, Lafayette 27.6 | Lafayette 50%wrong winner | 9.1 | 15.9 |
| New formula | Richmond 27.5, Lafayette 26.8 | Richmond 52%right winner | 8.3 | 16.7 |
Final: Richmond 40, Lafayette 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Richmond vs Lafayette: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Richmond | Lafayette |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9 | 33.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 28.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.41 | 6.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.86 | 5.66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.6 | 198.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.9 | 213.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 168.8 | 159.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 157.1 | 227.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| Stat | Richmond | Lafayette |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 36.7% | 43.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5% | 46.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 12.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 12.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 13.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.7% | 10.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 3.64 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83 | 3.69 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.2 | 65.9 |
| Stat | Richmond | Lafayette |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13 | +0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 43.9% |
| Passing success rate | 36.7% | 43.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.5% | 19.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.4% | 33.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 32.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.4% | 48.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.3% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.7% | 55.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.6% | 58.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Richmond schedule · Lafayette schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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