2026 schedule
Lafayette Leopards
2026 season so far
Lafayette is 3-4 against the 126th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.7 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-5.9 per game).
Lafayette plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Villanova in Week 9. We project Lafayette 25, Villanova 30 — Lafayette wins 37% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Georgetown Hoyas
3-4 · SOS #121
Thu, Aug 27, 11:00 PM
Week 1
Proj 27.4-28.7 · 47%
Our number· pregame
Georgetown by 1.3
Total 56.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Cooper Field - at
UConn Huskies
1-0 · SOS #132
Loss 7-56
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UConn by 29.7
Total 66.3
DraftKings
CONN -21.5
Total 51.5
Final UConn by 49. UConn beat the spread. 63 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: UConn -20.5 (open UConn -19.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 55) · ML +862.5 / -1550 · UConn 90% no-vig · model vs market +9.2 pts, +8 pct pts (UConn view)
Pratt & Whitney Stadium - vs
Marist Red Foxes
1-2 · SOS #154
Win 13-9
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Lafayette by 8.7
Total 55.3
DraftKings
LAF -15.5
Total 47.5
Final Lafayette by 4. Marist beat the spread. 22 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Lafayette -15.5 (open Lafayette -12.5) · O/U 47.5 · ML +517 / -820 · Lafayette 85% no-vig · model vs market -6.8 pts, -13 pct pts (Lafayette view)
ESPN+ Fisher Stadium - at
Columbia Lions
1-0 · SOS #119
Loss 34-40
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Columbia by 4.2
Total 49.6
DraftKings
COLU -3
Total 47.5
Final Columbia by 6. Columbia beat the spread. 74 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Columbia -3 (open Columbia -2.5) · O/U 47.5 · ML +136 / -170 · Columbia 60% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +1 pct pts (Columbia view)
ESPN+ Lawrence A. Wien Stadium - vs
Holy Cross Crusaders
1-4 · SOS #69
Loss 30-38
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Lafayette by 7.4
Total 56.6
DraftKings
LAF -4
Total 46.5
Final Holy Cross by 8. Holy Cross beat the spread. 68 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lafayette -4 (open Lafayette -5.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 50.5) · ML +143 / -180 · Lafayette 61% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +8 pct pts (Lafayette view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABE)ESPN+ Fisher Stadium - vs
Richmond Spiders
5-1 · SOS #129
Loss 31-40
Week 5
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 55.1
DraftKings
RICH -6.5
Total 43.5
Final Richmond by 9. Richmond beat the spread. 71 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Richmond -6.5 · O/U 43.5 (open 42.5) · ML -249 / +195 · Lafayette 32% no-vig · model vs market +6.6 pts, +18 pct pts (Lafayette view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 13 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABE)ESPN+ Fisher Stadium - at
Bucknell Bison
1-6 · SOS #115
Win 20-7
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Lafayette by 1.9
Total 55.3
DraftKings
LAF -4.5
Total 52.5
Final Lafayette by 13. Lafayette beat the spread. 27 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lafayette -4.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -184 / +146 · Bucknell 39% no-vig · model vs market +2.6 pts, +7 pct pts (Bucknell view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 52°F, Wind 9 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSEG)ESPN+ Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium - at
Fordham Rams
2-7 · SOS #48
Win 31-17
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Lafayette by 2.8
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Lafayette by 14. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 5 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLGA)ESPN+ Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field - vs
Villanova Wildcats
4-4 · SOS #103
Sat, Oct 31, 4:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 25-30 · 37%
Our number
Villanova by 5
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 55°F, Wind 5 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Fisher Stadium - at
William & Mary Tribe
3-5 · SOS #78
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 31-27 · 62%
Our number
Lafayette by 4
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Walter J. Zable Stadium - at
Colgate Raiders
4-4 · SOS #84
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 21-30 · 28%
Our number
Colgate by 9
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Andy Kerr Stadium - vs
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
6-2 · SOS #131
Sat, Nov 21, 5:30 PM
Week 12
Proj 19-35 · 15%
Our number
Lehigh by 16
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Fisher Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Lafayette Leopards stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-27.7
Adj. offense
14.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
41.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.7 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 29.6 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.18 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.12 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 155.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 173.6 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 165.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 275.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.86 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.14 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.86 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.12 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 35.8% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 46.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.1% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.9% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 20.0% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.50 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.01 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 12 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 10 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.4 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.06 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.20 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 33.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 37.1% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 25.9% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 33.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 34.4% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 41.3% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 56.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 66.8% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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