Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lafayette 28.6, Bucknell 26.7 at Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Lafayette wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 55.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Lafayette is 1-4, scoring 23 and allowing 36.6 points per game (-13.6 per game). Bucknell is 1-5, scoring 10.8 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-15 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lafayette by 24 and Bucknell by 21 about 80% of the time.
Bucknell gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Lafayette is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lafayette 20, Bucknell 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.1 points and the total by 28.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lafayette / Bucknell) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lafayette -4.5 | 52.5 | -184 / +146 |
| DraftKings | Lafayette -4.5 | 52.5 | -184 / +146 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Bucknell win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Lafayette -2 | 55.3 | 45% |
| Market consensus | Lafayette -4.5 | 52.5 | 39% |
| Blended projection | Lafayette -4 | 53.3 | 39% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Bucknell win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 39% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Lafayette -1.9 · market Lafayette -4.5 · difference +2.6 pts (Bucknell view)
- Total
- model 55.3 · market 52.5 · difference +2.8
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Bucknell than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lafayette 28.6, Bucknell 26.7 | Lafayette 55%right winner | 11.1 | 28.3 |
| New formula | Lafayette 29.3, Bucknell 25.6 | Lafayette 59%right winner | 9.4 | 27.9 |
Final: Lafayette 20, Bucknell 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lafayette vs Bucknell: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lafayette | Bucknell |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6 | 26.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8 | 34.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 5.53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 | 6.58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.8 | 136.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 213.7 | 206.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.5 | 203.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.1 | 228.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.92 | 3.42 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Bucknell |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 43.2% | 39.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 49.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3% | 12.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 15.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 10.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3% | 16.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.64 | 3.78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 4.10 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9 | 62.2 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Bucknell |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.21 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 38.6% |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 41.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 21.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.2% | 27.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6% | 34.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8% | 42.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.4% | 51.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8% | 67.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lafayette schedule · Bucknell schedule · all Week 7 projections
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