Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lafayette 32, Holy Cross 24.6 at Fisher Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Lafayette wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.4 points and 56.5 combined points.
Holy Cross is 0-4, scoring 13.8 and allowing 38.3 points per game (-24.5 per game). Lafayette is 1-2, scoring 18 and allowing 35 points per game (-17 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Holy Cross by 15 and Lafayette by 30 about 80% of the time.
Lafayette gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lafayette by about 5.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Holy Cross 38, Lafayette 30. Holy Cross won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Holy Cross / Lafayette) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lafayette -5.5 → Lafayette -4 | 50.5 → 46.5 | +143 / -180 |
| DraftKings | Lafayette -5.5 → Lafayette -4 | 50.5 → 46.5 | +143 / -180 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Lafayette win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Lafayette -7.5 | 56.5 | 69% |
| Market consensus | Lafayette -4 | 46.5 | 61% |
| Blended projection | Lafayette -4.5 | 48.1 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Lafayette win probability
- model 69% · market (no-vig) 61% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Lafayette -7.4 · market Lafayette -4 · difference +3.4 pts (Lafayette view)
- Total
- model 56.5 · market 46.5 · difference +10.0
Model margin is 3.4 pts more toward Lafayette than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Holy Cross 24.6, Lafayette 32.0 | Lafayette 69%wrong winner | 15.4 | 11.5 |
| New formula | Holy Cross 24.6, Lafayette 31.4 | Lafayette 67%wrong winner | 14.8 | 12.0 |
Final: Holy Cross 38, Lafayette 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Holy Cross vs Lafayette: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Holy Cross | Lafayette |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 33.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 28.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.82 | 6.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.87 | 5.66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.3 | 198.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.4 | 213.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.6 | 159.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.8 | 227.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 0.92 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | Lafayette |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 35.2% | 43.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 46.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4% | 12.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.0% |
| Havoc rate | 14.4% | 13.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 10.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 3.64 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51 | 3.69 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 65.9 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | Lafayette |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 43.9% |
| Passing success rate | 30.8% | 43.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 19.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 33.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7% | 32.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.0% | 48.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.5% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.1% | 55.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.2% | 58.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Holy Cross schedule · Lafayette schedule · all Week 4 projections
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