Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgetown 28.7, Lafayette 27.4 at Cooper Field in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Georgetown wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 56.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Lafayette has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Georgetown has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lafayette by 21 and Georgetown by 24 about 80% of the time.
Georgetown gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Lafayette would be favoured by 0.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lafayette vs Georgetown: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lafayette | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6 | 21.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8 | 26.7 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 5.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 | 5.73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.8 | 179.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 213.7 | 182.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.5 | 176.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.1 | 218.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 2.17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.92 | 3.50 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.10 |
| Success rate | 43.2% | 34.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 42.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 10.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.64 | 2.87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 3.08 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9 | 70.9 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 35.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 23.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.2% | 26.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6% | 31.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8% | 41.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 38.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.4% | 45.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8% | 51.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lafayette schedule · Georgetown schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.