Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UConn 48, Lafayette 18.3 at Pratt & Whitney Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: UConn wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 29.7 points and 66.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Lafayette has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. UConn has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Lafayette plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why UConn's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UConn by 7 and UConn by 52 about 80% of the time.
UConn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UConn by about 27.6.
Result: Lafayette 7, UConn 56. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.3 points and the total by 3.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lafayette / UConn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UConn -19.5 → UConn -20.5 | 55 → 51.5 | +862.5 / -1550 |
| Bovada | UConn -19.5 | 51.5 | +725 / -1300 |
| DraftKings | UConn -19.5 → UConn -21.5 | 58.5 → 51.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UConn win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UConn -29.5 | 66.2 | 97% |
| Market consensus | UConn -20.5 | 51.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | UConn -22 | 53.0 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UConn win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model UConn -29.7 · market UConn -20.5 · difference +9.2 pts (UConn view)
- Total
- model 66.2 · market 51.5 · difference +14.7
Model margin is 9.2 pts more toward UConn than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lafayette 18.3, UConn 48.0 | UConn 97%right winner | 19.3 | 3.2 |
| New formula | Lafayette 19.0, UConn 40.5 | UConn 89%right winner | 27.5 | 3.4 |
Final: Lafayette 7, UConn 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lafayette vs UConn: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lafayette | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6 | 35.3#15 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8 | 27.0#81 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 6.78#17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 | 5.95#88 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.8 | 167.5#69 |
| Net passing yards per game | 213.7 | 275.7#19 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.5 | 215.9#129 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.1 | 207.2#51 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.15#1 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 1.15#59 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 2.69#17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.92 | 1.15#16 |
| Stat | Lafayette | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.16#11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.07#105 |
| Success rate | 43.2% | 45.4%#36 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 46.1%#126 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3% | 12.5%#65 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 12.6%#78 |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 11.2%#107 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3% | 11.0%#40 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.64 | 4.18#41 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 3.97#83 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | own 32#26 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | own 26#5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9 | 65.4#78 |
| Stat | Lafayette | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.07#46 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.24#8 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.14#131 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.00#67 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 45.7%#44 |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 46.8%#19 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 16.9%#47 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.2% | 29.1%#82 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6% | 33.6%#116 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8% | 41.5%#63 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 38.0%#45 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.4% | 60.6%#73 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8% | 62.0%#83 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lafayette schedule · UConn schedule · all Week 1 projections
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