Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colgate 30, Lafayette 21 at Andy Kerr Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Colgate wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 50.5 combined points.
Lafayette is 3-4 against the 131st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.7 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-5.9 per game). Colgate is 4-4 against the 85th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.6 and allowing 15.6 points per game (+4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lafayette by 13 and Colgate by 32 about 80% of the time.
Colgate gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colgate by about 7. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lafayette vs Colgate: stat comparison
| Stat | Lafayette | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.7 | 19.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6 | 15.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.18 | 5.01 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.12 | 5.13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.1 | 157.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 173.6 | 180.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.9 | 124.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.0 | 181.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71 | 1.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86 | 1.63 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86 | 2.50 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | 0.00 |
| Success rate | 35.8% | 40.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4% | 37.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 9.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 17.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.0% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.50 | 2.69 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.01 | 2.90 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 67.4 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.5% | 48.0% |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 34.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.9% | 18.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6% | 30.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.6% | 26.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4% | 46.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.3% | 36.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.0% | 43.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.8% | 47.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lafayette schedule · Colgate schedule · all Week 11 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.