Matchup analysis
Our model projects Lafayette 31, William & Mary 27 at Walter J. Zable Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Lafayette wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 58.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Lafayette is 3-4 against the 131st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.7 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-5.9 per game). William & Mary is 3-5 against the 91st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.1 and allowing 36 points per game (-14.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lafayette by 27 and William & Mary by 18 about 80% of the time.
William & Mary gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Lafayette is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Lafayette vs William & Mary: stat comparison
| Stat | Lafayette | William & Mary |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.7 | 21.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6 | 36.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.18 | 4.86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.12 | 6.77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.1 | 129.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 173.6 | 178.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.9 | 256.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.0 | 217.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14 | 1.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86 | 3.38 |
| Stat | Lafayette | William & Mary |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.19 |
| Success rate | 35.8% | 32.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4% | 48.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 9.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 15.6% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.0% | 20.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.50 | 3.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.01 | 4.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 63.3 |
| Stat | Lafayette | William & Mary |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.5% | 38.1% |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 29.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.9% | 25.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6% | 23.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.6% | 34.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4% | 35.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.3% | 48.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.0% | 56.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.8% | 54.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lafayette schedule · William & Mary schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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