Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lafayette 28.2, Fordham 25.4 at Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Lafayette wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 53.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Lafayette is 2-4, scoring 22.5 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-9.2 per game). Fordham is 2-6, scoring 15.8 and allowing 31.4 points per game (-15.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lafayette by 25 and Fordham by 20 about 80% of the time.
Fordham gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Lafayette is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lafayette 31, Fordham 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.2 points and the total by 5.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lafayette 28.2, Fordham 25.4 | Lafayette 57%right winner | 11.2 | 5.5 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Lafayette 31, Fordham 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lafayette vs Fordham: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lafayette | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6 | 15.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8 | 33.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 4.85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.8 | 112.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 213.7 | 242.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.5 | 146.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.1 | 289.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.92 | 4.33 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 43.2% | 35.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 11.2% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.64 | 2.78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 4.74 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9 | 73.2 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 39.8% |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 33.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.2% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8% | 35.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 39.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.4% | 49.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8% | 69.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lafayette schedule · Fordham schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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