Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Columbia 26.9, Lafayette 22.7 at Lawrence A. Wien Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Columbia wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 49.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Lafayette is 1-1, scoring 10 and allowing 32.5 points per game (-22.5 per game). Columbia has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lafayette by 18 and Columbia by 27 about 80% of the time.
Columbia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Columbia by about 2.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lafayette 34, Columbia 40. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.8 points and the total by 24.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lafayette / Columbia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Columbia -2.5 → Columbia -3 | 47.5 | +136 / -170 |
| DraftKings | Columbia -2.5 → Columbia -3 | 47.5 | +136 / -170 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Columbia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Columbia -4 | 49.5 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Columbia -3 | 47.5 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Columbia -3 | 48.6 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Columbia win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Columbia -4.2 · market Columbia -3 · difference +1.2 pts (Columbia view)
- Total
- model 49.5 · market 47.5 · difference +2.0
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Columbia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lafayette 22.7, Columbia 26.9 | Columbia 61%right winner | 1.8 | 24.5 |
| New formula | Lafayette 19.5, Columbia 31.8 | Columbia 76%right winner | 6.3 | 22.7 |
Final: Lafayette 34, Columbia 40. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lafayette vs Columbia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lafayette | Columbia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6 | 15.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8 | 27.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 4.88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 | 5.79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.8 | 124.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 213.7 | 191.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.5 | 167.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.1 | 205.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 0.80 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.20 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.92 | 2.40 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Columbia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 43.2% | 37.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 44.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3% | 11.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 13.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3% | 14.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.64 | 3.02 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9 | 64.9 |
| Stat | Lafayette | Columbia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 42.7% |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 33.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 19.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.2% | 22.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6% | 33.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8% | 39.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 45.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.4% | 50.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lafayette schedule · Columbia schedule · all Week 3 projections
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