Matchup analysis
Our model projects Holy Cross 25, Richmond 22 at Fitton Field in Week 9. That is a lean: Holy Cross wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 47.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Richmond is 6-2 against the 129th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.9 and allowing 24.4 points per game (-3.5 per game). Holy Cross is 3-5 against the 69th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.9 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-6.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Richmond by 19 and Holy Cross by 26 about 80% of the time.
Holy Cross gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Holy Cross by about 1. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Richmond vs Holy Cross: stat comparison
| Stat | Richmond | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.9 | 21.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 28.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.97 | 5.54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.69 | 6.50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.9 | 142.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 183.8 | 205.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.6 | 142.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 181.1 | 260.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 3.50 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Richmond | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 38.5% | 40.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8% | 44.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1% | 11.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 15.8% |
| Havoc rate | 16.7% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 13.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.36 | 3.69 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.77 | 4.01 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.1 | 62.6 |
| Stat | Richmond | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.27 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.0% | 43.1% |
| Passing success rate | 36.7% | 37.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2% | 18.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1% | 24.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.0% | 28.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.5% | 37.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.6% | 40.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 63.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.3% | 56.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Richmond schedule · Holy Cross schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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