Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Furman 23.7, Richmond 23.1 at Robins Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Furman wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 46.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Furman is 2-2, scoring 16.5 and allowing 23 points per game (-6.5 per game). Richmond is 3-1, scoring 21.8 and allowing 32.3 points per game (-10.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Furman by 23 and Richmond by 22 about 80% of the time.
Richmond gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Furman is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Furman 9, Richmond 13. Richmond won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Furman / Richmond) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Richmond -3.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | +108 / -135 |
| DraftKings | Richmond -3.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | +108 / -135 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Richmond win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Furman -0.5 | 46.7 | 48% |
| Market consensus | Richmond -3.5 | 43.5 | 54% |
| Blended projection | Richmond -3 | 45.0 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Richmond win probability
- model 48% · market (no-vig) 54% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Furman -0.6 · market Richmond -3.5 · difference -4.1 pts (Richmond view)
- Total
- model 46.7 · market 43.5 · difference +3.2
Model margin is 4.1 pts more toward Furman than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Furman 23.7, Richmond 23.1 | Furman 52%wrong winner | 4.6 | 24.7 |
| New formula | Furman 23.4, Richmond 23.4 | Richmond 50%wrong winner | 4.0 | 24.8 |
Final: Furman 9, Richmond 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Furman vs Richmond: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Furman | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4 | 21.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0 | 22.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.48 | 5.41 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.42 | 4.86 |
| Rushing yards per game | 113.8 | 166.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.9 | 201.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.8 | 168.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 245.9 | 157.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92 | 3.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 1.17 |
| Stat | Furman | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 40.8% | 36.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 42.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 12.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 10.9% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 13.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 15.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.61 | 3.33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.98 | 3.83 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 68.2 |
| Stat | Furman | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.13 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 37.3% |
| Passing success rate | 43.2% | 36.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 23.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 29.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1% | 28.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 39.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8% | 40.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.2% | 41.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3% | 51.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Furman schedule · Richmond schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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