Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Howard 23.7, Richmond 22.5 at Greene Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Howard wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.2 points and 46.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Richmond is 1-0, scoring 35 and allowing 14 points per game (+21 per game). Howard is 1-0, scoring 31 and allowing 24 points per game (+7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Richmond by 21 and Howard by 24 about 80% of the time.
Howard gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Richmond would be favoured by 0.9.
Result: Richmond 28, Howard 21. Richmond won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 8.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Richmond / Howard) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Richmond -14.5 → Richmond -14 | 45.5 → 43.5 | -680 / +453 |
| DraftKings | Richmond -14.5 → Richmond -14 | 45.5 → 43.5 | -680 / +453 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Howard win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Howard -1 | 46.2 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Richmond -14 | 43.5 | 17% |
| Blended projection | Richmond -11.5 | 45.0 | 22% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Howard win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 17% · difference +36 pts
- Margin
- model Howard -1.2 · market Richmond -14 · difference +15.2 pts (Howard view)
- Total
- model 46.2 · market 43.5 · difference +2.7
Model margin is 15.2 pts more toward Howard than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Richmond 22.5, Howard 23.7 | Howard 53%wrong winner | 8.2 | 2.8 |
| New formula | Richmond 24.0, Howard 23.9 | Richmond 50%right winner | 6.9 | 1.1 |
Final: Richmond 28, Howard 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Richmond vs Howard: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Richmond | Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9 | 19.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 24.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.41 | 4.77 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.86 | 5.82 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.6 | 138.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.9 | 159.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 168.8 | 178.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 157.1 | 155.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.09 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 2.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17 | 3.09 |
| Stat | Richmond | Howard |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| Success rate | 36.7% | 36.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5% | 40.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 13.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.7% | 14.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 3.90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83 | 4.13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.2 | 62.5 |
| Stat | Richmond | Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13 | -0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 40.1% |
| Passing success rate | 36.7% | 34.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.5% | 19.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.4% | 25.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 28.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.4% | 37.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.3% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.7% | 62.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.6% | 61.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Richmond schedule · Howard schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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