Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected NC State 42.5, Richmond 8.2 at Carter-Finley Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: NC State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 34.3 points and 50.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Richmond is 2-0, scoring 31.5 and allowing 17.5 points per game (+14 per game). NC State is 0-1, scoring 8 and allowing 34 points per game (-26 per game).
Richmond plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why NC State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between NC State by 12 and NC State by 57 about 80% of the time.
NC State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour NC State by about 32.2. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Richmond 0, NC State 73. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 38.7 points and the total by 22.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Richmond / NC State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | NC State -30.75 → NC State -33.25 | 49 → 50.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
| Bovada | NC State -31 → NC State -33 | 49.5 → 50.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | NC State -30.5 → NC State -33.5 | 48.5 → 50.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | NC State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | NC State -34.5 | 50.6 | 99% |
| Market consensus | NC State -33.5 | 50.5 | 95% |
| Blended projection | NC State -33.5 | 51.3 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- NC State win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model NC State -34.3 · market NC State -33.25 · difference +1.0 pts (NC State view)
- Total
- model 50.6 · market 50.5 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward NC State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Richmond 8.2, NC State 42.5 | NC State 99%right winner | 38.7 | 22.4 |
| New formula | Richmond 11.8, NC State 41.3 | NC State 96%right winner | 43.5 | 19.8 |
Final: Richmond 0, NC State 73. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Richmond vs NC State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Richmond | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9 | 30.2#45 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 27.2#82 |
| Yards per play | 5.41 | 6.43#27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.86 | 6.31#114 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.6 | 155.1#83 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.9 | 255.2#37 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 168.8 | 150.2#48 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 157.1 | 280.2#133 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.00#65 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 0.92#82 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 1.54#102 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17 | 1.77#67 |
| Stat | Richmond | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.13#19 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.11#122 |
| Success rate | 36.7% | 43.7%#51 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5% | 39.4%#40 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 13.7%#29 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 13.4%#105 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 11.2%#106 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.7% | 12.4%#81 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 5.02#4 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83 | 3.73#49 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 29#105 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | own 30#81 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.2 | 63.8#100 |
| Stat | Richmond | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.08#38 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.18#18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.01#74 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13 | +0.18#123 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 43.9%#63 |
| Passing success rate | 36.7% | 43.4%#43 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.5% | 21.6%#119 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.4% | 31.9%#47 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 31.6%#94 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.4% | 42.0%#56 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.3% | 45.7%#120 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.7% | 81.4%#1 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.6% | 61.2%#74 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Richmond schedule · NC State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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