2026 schedule
NC State Wolfpack
2026 season so far
NC State is 3-4 against the 67th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 28.1 points per game (+4.2 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings NC State ranks 62nd of 139 FBS teams overall — 39th on offense and 90th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs California in Week 9. We project NC State 36, California 25 — NC State wins 78% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Virginia Cavaliers
1-0 · SOS #57
Loss 8-34
Week 1
Our number· model now
Virginia by 2
Total 54
DraftKings
UVA -4
Total 50.5
Final Virginia by 26. Virginia beat the spread. 42 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -4 (open Virginia -3.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 54.5) · ML +139.5 / -165 · Virginia 60% no-vig · model vs market -2.0 pts, -3 pct pts (Virginia view)
ESPN Scott Stadium - vs
Richmond Spiders
2-1 · SOS #130
Win 73-0
Week 2
Our number· model now
NC State by 26
Total 54
DraftKings
NCSU -33.5
Total 50.5
Final NC State by 73. NC State beat the spread. 73 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: NC State -33.25 (open NC State -30.75) · O/U 50.5 (open 49) · ML +2000 / -6500 · NC State 95% no-vig · model vs market -7.2 pts, +0 pct pts (NC State view)
ESPNU Carter-Finley Stadium - at
Vanderbilt Commodores
3-0 · SOS #16
Loss 31-35
Week 3
Our number· model now
Vanderbilt by 2
Total 60
DraftKings
VAN -3
Total 50.5
Final Vanderbilt by 4. Vanderbilt beat the spread. 66 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Vanderbilt -3 (open Vanderbilt -4) · O/U 50.5 (open 53.5) · ML +145 / -170 · Vanderbilt 61% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -5 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
SEC Network FirstBank Stadium - vs
App State Mountaineers
3-1 · SOS #124
Win 41-31
Week 4
Our number· model now
NC State by 11
Total 61
DraftKings
NCSU -12.5
Total 56.5
Final NC State by 10. App State beat the spread. 72 points — over the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: NC State -12.75 (open NC State -13.75) · O/U 56.5 (open 55.25) · ML +400 / -555 · NC State 81% no-vig · model vs market -1.7 pts, -4 pct pts (NC State view)
ESPNU Carter-Finley Stadium - vs
Louisville Cardinals
2-3 · SOS #17
Win 31-28
Week 5
Our number· model now
Louisville by 7
Total 63
DraftKings
LOU -5.5
Total 56.5
Final NC State by 3. NC State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisville -4.25 (open Louisville -6.75) · O/U 57 (open 60) · ML -227.5 / +187.5 · NC State 33% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -1 pct pts (NC State view)
ACC Network Carter-Finley Stadium - vs
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
5-1 · SOS #47
Loss 14-38
Week 6
Our number· model now
Wake Forest by 10
Total 58
DraftKings
WAKE -4
Total 56.5
Final Wake Forest by 24. Wake Forest beat the spread. 52 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -3.75 · O/U 56.5 (open 59.75) · ML -175 / +147.5 · NC State 39% no-vig · model vs market -6.2 pts, -12 pct pts (NC State view)
CW/ESPN Unlmtd Carter-Finley Stadium - at
Stanford Cardinal
4-4 · SOS #14
Loss 28-31
Week 8
Our number· model now
NC State by 10
Total 60
DraftKings
NCSU -6.5
Total 55.5
Final Stanford by 3. Stanford beat the spread. 59 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: NC State -6.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML -256.5 / +210 · Stanford 31% no-vig · model vs market -3.5 pts, -5 pct pts (Stanford view)
ESPN Stanford Stadium - vs
California Golden Bears
3-5 · SOS #50
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 36-25 · 78%
Our number
NC State by 11
Total 61
DraftKings
NCSU -7
Total 56.5
We're 4 points higher on NC State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: NC State -7 · O/U 56.5 · ML +221 / -272.5 · NC State 70% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +8 pct pts (NC State view)
ACC Network Carter-Finley Stadium - vs
Duke Blue Devils
5-2 · SOS #90
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 28-30 · 43%
Our number
Duke by 2
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Carter-Finley Stadium - vs
Syracuse Orange
3-4 · SOS #77
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 33-30 · 59%
Our number
NC State by 3
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Carter-Finley Stadium - at
Florida State Seminoles
3-4 · SOS #10
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 26-36 · 25%
Our number
Florida State by 10
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Doak Campbell Stadium - at
North Carolina Tar Heels
4-3 · SOS #12
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 25-30 · 38%
Our number
North Carolina by 5
Total 55
DraftKings
NCSU -1.5
Total 55.5
We're 6.5 points higher on North Carolina than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: NC State -1.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML -118 / -102 · North Carolina 48% no-vig · model vs market +6.5 pts, +14 pct pts (North Carolina view)
Kenan Stadium
Times shown in your local time
NC State Wolfpack stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+1.1
62nd in FBS
Adj. offense
30.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
29.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 32.3 | 48 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 28.1 | 105 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.98 | 72 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.27 | 113 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 172.1 | 61 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 239.6 | 53 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 146.9 | 61 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 231.0 | 104 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | 50 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.57 | 117 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.29 | 117 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.86 | 73 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.19 | 24 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.22 | 133 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 45.2% | 46 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.4% | 124 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.8% | 67 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 15.9% | 134 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.1% | 128 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.9% | 89 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.09 | 5 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.69 | 127 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 28 | 106 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 28 | 50 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 68.9 | 39 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.07 | 77 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.30 | 14 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.14 | 125 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.28 | 130 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.8% | 99 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 49.5% | 18 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.6% | 64 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 37.5% | 19 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 33.2% | 114 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 52.5% | 13 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 35.6% | 39 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 71.7% | 26 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 80.4% | 135 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.