Matchup analysis
Our model projects NC State 33, Syracuse 30 at Carter-Finley Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: NC State wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 62.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Syracuse is 3-4 against the 79th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 26.3 points per game (+5.3 per game). NC State is 3-4 against the 74th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 28.1 points per game (+4.2 per game).
Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over NC State's below-average defense (90th); that mismatch is where most of Syracuse's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: NC State's strong offense (38th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense) against Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Syracuse by 19 and NC State by 26 about 80% of the time.
NC State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour NC State by about 1.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Syracuse vs NC State: stat comparison
| Stat | Syracuse | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6#50 | 32.3#48 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3#93 | 28.1#105 |
| Yards per play | 5.79#90 | 5.98#72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59#68 | 6.27#113 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.3#56 | 172.1#61 |
| Net passing yards per game | 283.9#14 | 239.6#53 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.6#73 | 146.9#61 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.9#45 | 231.0#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#123 | 0.71#50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#69 | 0.57#117 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#39 | 1.29#117 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#108 | 1.86#73 |
| Stat | Syracuse | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#53 | +0.19#24 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#56 | +0.22#133 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#63 | 45.2%#46 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5%#85 | 45.4%#124 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#93 | 12.8%#67 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#110 | 15.9%#134 |
| Havoc rate | 16.4%#18 | 11.1%#128 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#56 | 13.9%#89 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67#104 | 5.09#5 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.11#101 | 4.69#127 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#36 | own 28#106 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#93 | own 28#50 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 80.1#1 | 68.9#39 |
| Stat | Syracuse | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#66 | +0.07#77 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#54 | +0.30#14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#122 | +0.14#125 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#29 | +0.28#130 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1%#58 | 40.8%#99 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6%#67 | 49.5%#18 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7%#80 | 16.6%#64 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.7%#97 | 37.5%#19 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6%#57 | 33.2%#114 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4%#39 | 52.5%#13 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.2%#62 | 35.6%#39 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.8%#98 | 71.7%#26 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#103 | 80.4%#135 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Syracuse schedule · NC State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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