Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Carolina 30, NC State 26 at Kenan Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: North Carolina wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 55.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
NC State is 3-4 against the 67th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 28.1 points per game (+4.2 per game). North Carolina is 4-3 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+3.5 per game).
NC State's strong offense (38th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense) meets North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points NC State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense) against NC State's below-average defense (90th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between NC State by 19 and North Carolina by 27 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Carolina by about 1.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (NC State / North Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | NC State -1.5 | 55.5 | -118 / -102 |
| DraftKings | NC State -1.5 | 55.5 | -118 / -102 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Carolina -4 | 55.7 | 60% |
| Market consensus | NC State -1.5 | 55.5 | 48% |
| Blended projection | NC State -0.5 | 55.9 | 48% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 48% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model North Carolina -4 · market NC State -1.5 · difference +5.5 pts (North Carolina view)
- Total
- model 55.7 · market 55.5 · difference +0.2
Model margin is 5.5 pts more toward North Carolina than the market.
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NC State vs North Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | NC State | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3#48 | 24.4#97 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.1#105 | 20.9#43 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#72 | 5.82#88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.27#113 | 5.23#41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 172.1#61 | 126.0#123 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.6#53 | 215.6#81 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.9#61 | 169.9#93 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 231.0#104 | 211.1#81 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#50 | 1.00#91 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#117 | 1.00#58 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#117 | 2.00#71 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#73 | 2.14#95 |
| Stat | NC State | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#24 | +0.03#101 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22#133 | +0.04#69 |
| Success rate | 45.2%#46 | 45.6%#42 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.4%#124 | 43.0%#94 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8%#67 | 11.6%#98 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.9%#134 | 7.3%#4 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#128 | 11.2%#126 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#89 | 12.4%#49 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.09#5 | 4.59#33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.69#127 | 3.38#30 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#106 | own 30#64 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#50 | own 31#116 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9#39 | 58.7#129 |
| Stat | NC State | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#77 | +0.02#100 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#14 | +0.04#91 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#125 | +0.06#81 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.28#130 | +0.03#64 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8%#99 | 44.7%#67 |
| Passing success rate | 49.5%#18 | 46.3%#35 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6%#64 | 16.4%#58 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.5%#19 | 31.4%#68 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2%#114 | 23.6%#8 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.5%#13 | 44.0%#47 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.6%#39 | 42.7%#107 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.7%#26 | 65.2%#55 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.4%#135 | 50.0%#34 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: NC State schedule · North Carolina schedule · all Week 13 projections
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