Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected NC State 38.3, App State 20.6 at Carter-Finley Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: NC State wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.7 points and 58.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
App State is 3-0, scoring 36 and allowing 16 points per game (+20 per game). NC State is 1-2, scoring 37.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+14.3 per game).
NC State's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) should limit App State's below-average offense (99th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: NC State's strong offense (22nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.5 points against an average defense) against App State's below-average defense (100th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between App State by 5 and NC State by 40 about 80% of the time.
NC State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour NC State by about 15.6. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: App State 31, NC State 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.7 points and the total by 13.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (App State / NC State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | NC State -13.75 → NC State -12.75 | 55.25 → 56.5 | +400 / -555 |
| DraftKings | NC State -14 → NC State -12.5 | 55.5 → 56.5 | +400 / -535 |
| Bovada | NC State -13.5 → NC State -13 | 55 → 56.5 | +400 / -575 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | NC State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | NC State -17.5 | 58.9 | 88% |
| Market consensus | NC State -13 | 56.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | NC State -13.5 | 56.9 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- NC State win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model NC State -17.7 · market NC State -12.75 · difference +4.9 pts (NC State view)
- Total
- model 58.9 · market 56.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 4.9 pts more toward NC State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | App State 20.6, NC State 38.3 | NC State 88%right winner | 7.7 | 13.1 |
| New formula | App State 20.3, NC State 39.3 | NC State 89%right winner | 9.0 | 12.4 |
Final: App State 31, NC State 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
App State vs NC State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | App State | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.0#50 | 37.3#46 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0#32 | 23.0#74 |
| Yards per play | 6.67#52 | 6.74#44 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.89#41 | 5.51#77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 177.7#68 | 225.0#34 |
| Net passing yards per game | 306.7#21 | 215.3#85 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 103.7#25 | 152.7#86 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.3#79 | 163.0#35 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#65 | 1.00#93 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#8 | 1.00#73 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#82 | 1.00#120 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#47 | 1.67#86 |
| Stat | App State | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#75 | +0.22#20 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#47 | +0.17#122 |
| Success rate | 41.2%#94 | 44.4%#63 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#66 | 46.8%#122 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#53 | 12.5%#82 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#71 | 13.5%#107 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#56 | 10.6%#122 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#67 | 13.9%#93 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.12#84 | 5.44#5 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.41#39 | 4.10#87 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#18 | own 28#107 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#14 | own 29#81 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.7#18 | 65.3#76 |
| Stat | App State | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06#122 | +0.22#12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24#41 | +0.22#45 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#99 | +0.17#120 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#29 | +0.17#106 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.0%#132 | 40.3%#100 |
| Passing success rate | 53.2%#20 | 48.6%#38 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.0%#110 | 12.9%#19 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.9%#33 | 30.4%#85 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.2%#16 | 30.8%#83 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1%#75 | 47.5%#41 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 23.7%#5 | 26.3%#14 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.0%#50 | 90.9%#3 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.3%#76 | 83.3%#127 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: App State schedule · NC State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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