Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected NC State 35, Stanford 24.3 at Stanford Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: NC State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.7 points and 59.3 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
NC State is 3-3, scoring 33 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+5.3 per game). Stanford is 3-4, scoring 18.3 and allowing 36.6 points per game (-18.3 per game).
NC State's strong offense (38th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Stanford's below-average defense (117th); that mismatch is where most of NC State's projected points come from. Expect Stanford to find it hard going: NC State's below-average defense (87th) outranks Stanford's below-average offense (109th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between NC State by 33 and Stanford by 12 about 80% of the time.
Stanford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. NC State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: NC State 28, Stanford 31. Stanford won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (NC State / Stanford) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | NC State -6.5 | 55.5 | -256.5 / +210 |
| FanDuel | NC State -6.5 | 55.5 | -245 / +198 |
| DraftKings | NC State -6.5 | 55.5 | -265 / +215 |
| theScore Bet | NC State -6.5 | 55.5 | -240 / +200 |
| BetRivers | NC State -6.5 | 56.5 | -265 / +205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | NC State -6.5 | 56.5 | -260 / +210 |
| BetMGM | NC State -6.5 | 55.5 | -250 / +210 |
| Pinnacle | NC State -6.5 | 55 | -253 / +215 |
| Bovada | NC State -6.5 | 55.5 | -260 / +215 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 24, 5:57 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stanford win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | NC State -10.5 | 59.3 | 24% |
| Market consensus | NC State -6.5 | 55.5 | 31% |
| Blended projection | NC State -7 | 56.1 | 31% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stanford win probability
- model 24% · market (no-vig) 31% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model NC State -10.7 · market NC State -6.5 · difference -4.2 pts (Stanford view)
- Total
- model 59.3 · market 55.5 · difference +3.8
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Stanford 98%.
Model margin is 4.2 pts more toward NC State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | NC State 35.0, Stanford 24.3 | NC State 76%wrong winner | 13.7 | 0.3 |
| New formula | NC State 35.5, Stanford 23.9 | NC State 78%wrong winner | 14.5 | 0.4 |
Final: NC State 28, Stanford 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
NC State vs Stanford: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | NC State | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.0#44 | 18.3#127 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7#105 | 36.6#133 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#74 | 5.44#113 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.16#106 | 6.60#126 |
| Rushing yards per game | 177.2#59 | 118.9#130 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.7#56 | 229.3#66 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.7#50 | 205.0#126 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 220.7#94 | 250.1#118 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83#63 | 0.71#50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#101 | 0.71#85 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#115 | 0.71#136 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#73 | 1.71#66 |
| Stat | NC State | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#39 | +0.04#90 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.25#136 | +0.19#126 |
| Success rate | 44.4%#54 | 39.1%#119 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0%#123 | 46.4%#124 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7%#76 | 10.5%#118 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6%#133 | 15.6%#131 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#130 | 11.6%#120 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.0%#112 | 12.0%#38 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.97#11 | 3.67#104 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.85#130 | 5.40#138 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#97 | own 26#135 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#69 | own 31#102 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#31 | 64.0#86 |
| Stat | NC State | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#81 | -0.04#119 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.26#25 | +0.11#67 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18#132 | +0.19#133 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.30#128 | +0.19#113 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.2%#116 | 40.8%#98 |
| Passing success rate | 50.3%#18 | 37.8%#111 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.1%#75 | 18.7%#93 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.0%#28 | 24.3%#126 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.7%#118 | 38.1%#125 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.7%#14 | 35.9%#113 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.1%#38 | 47.8%#130 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.2%#40 | 57.1%#97 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 83.3%#136 | 82.1%#135 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: NC State schedule · Stanford schedule · all Week 8 projections
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