Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected NC State 29.9, Wake Forest 29.3 at Carter-Finley Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: NC State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 59.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Wake Forest is 4-1, scoring 36.6 and allowing 23 points per game (+13.6 per game). NC State is 3-2, scoring 36.8 and allowing 25.6 points per game (+11.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Wake Forest's strong offense (39th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense) against NC State's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th). NC State's strong offense (30th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.7 points against an average defense) meets Wake Forest's strong defense (36th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points NC State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wake Forest by 22 and NC State by 23 about 80% of the time.
NC State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Wake Forest would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on CW/ESPN Unlmtd.
Result: Wake Forest 38, NC State 14. Wake Forest won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 24.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wake Forest / NC State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wake Forest -3.75 | 59.75 → 56.5 | -175 / +147.5 |
| Bovada | Wake Forest -3.5 | 60 → 56.5 | -175 / +150 |
| DraftKings | Wake Forest -4 | 59.5 → 56.5 | -175 / +145 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | NC State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | NC State -0.5 | 59.1 | 52% |
| Market consensus | Wake Forest -3.5 | 56.5 | 39% |
| Blended projection | Wake Forest -3 | 56.9 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- NC State win probability
- model 52% · market (no-vig) 39% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model NC State -0.6 · market Wake Forest -3.75 · difference +4.4 pts (NC State view)
- Total
- model 59.1 · market 56.5 · difference +2.6
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward NC State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wake Forest 29.3, NC State 29.9 | NC State 52%wrong winner | 24.6 | 7.1 |
| New formula | Wake Forest 30.0, NC State 29.4 | Wake Forest 51%right winner | 23.5 | 7.4 |
Final: Wake Forest 38, NC State 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wake Forest vs NC State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Wake Forest | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.6#36 | 36.8#35 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0#63 | 25.6#91 |
| Yards per play | 6.93#25 | 6.33#58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.88#25 | 6.23#110 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.2#72 | 203.4#38 |
| Net passing yards per game | 279.0#30 | 247.0#51 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 132.8#47 | 147.4#64 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 214.8#82 | 206.4#72 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.40#21 | 1.00#83 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#119 | 0.80#88 |
| Sacks per game | 2.80#25 | 1.40#115 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.80#75 | 1.60#71 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#23 | +0.19#30 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#62 | +0.21#128 |
| Success rate | 47.8%#29 | 45.1%#49 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6%#93 | 45.1%#114 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5%#19 | 13.2%#66 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.8%#9 | 15.4%#125 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#75 | 12.6%#104 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0%#14 | 14.8%#107 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.91#17 | 5.14#7 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66#57 | 4.43#114 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#33 | own 29#89 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#39 | own 28#66 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.4#84 | 71.2#20 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#54 | +0.11#57 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#26 | +0.27#29 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#36 | +0.20#129 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#86 | +0.21#115 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.6%#22 | 39.7%#107 |
| Passing success rate | 46.5%#39 | 50.7%#19 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.7%#25 | 13.5%#23 |
| Passing-down success rate | 42.6%#5 | 38.1%#18 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4%#80 | 30.7%#83 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.7%#41 | 52.7%#12 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.5%#105 | 31.1%#21 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.3%#60 | 70.7%#31 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.6%#49 | 83.1%#131 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wake Forest schedule · NC State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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