2026 schedule

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

6-1SOS #47

2026 season so far

Wake Forest (No. 14) is 6-1 against the 47th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 19.4 points per game (+18 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Wake Forest ranks 21st of 139 FBS teams overall — 28th on offense and 20th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Virginia in Week 9. We project Wake Forest 30, Virginia 17 — Wake Forest wins 81% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Akron Zips
0-1 · SOS #109
Win 38-16
Week 1
Our number· model now
Wake Forest by 35
Total 53
DraftKings
WAKE -27.5
Total 50.5
Final Wake Forest by 22. Akron beat the spread. 54 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -27.5 (open Wake Forest -22.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 49.5) · ML +1300 / -3550 · Wake Forest 93% no-vig · model vs market +7.5 pts, +6 pct pts (Wake Forest view)
ACC Network Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Purdue Boilermakers
1-1 · SOS #11
Win 38-36
Week 2
Our number· model now
Wake Forest by 13
Total 57
DraftKings
WAKE -2.5
Total 51.5
Final Wake Forest by 2. Purdue beat the spread. 74 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -2.5 (open Wake Forest -4) · O/U 51.25 (open 49.75) · ML -166.5 / +142 · Purdue 40% no-vig · model vs market -10.5 pts, -22 pct pts (Purdue view)
FS1 Ross-Ade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open Explosive short dogShort dog · more explosive · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in explosive-play rate: Record 211 hits, 186 misses (53% hit rate) over 397 graded games · 2026: 12-11Short dog · more explosive: missed
vs
#5 Miami Hurricanes
3-0 · SOS #72
Loss 20-33
Week 3
Our number· model now
Miami by 13
Total 57
DraftKings
MIA -20.5
Total 55.5
Final Miami by 13. Wake Forest beat the spread. 53 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -20.25 · O/U 55.75 (open 52.75) · ML -1750 / +900 · Wake Forest 10% no-vig · model vs market +7.3 pts, +10 pct pts (Wake Forest view)
ESPN Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
at
#16 Louisville Cardinals
2-2 · SOS #17
Win 30-27
Week 4
Our number· model now
dead even
Total 56
DraftKings
LOU -11.5
Total 57.5
Final Wake Forest by 3. Wake Forest beat the spread. 57 points — under the 57.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisville -11.25 (open Louisville -13) · O/U 57.5 (open 58.25) · ML +375 / -505 · Louisville 80% no-vig · model vs market -11.2 pts, -30 pct pts (Louisville view)
ESPN/Disney+ L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
L. McCoy WR · Low rec yds 52 (avg 75) · 73% · 75 ✓T. Richardson WR · Low rec yds 60 (avg 81) · 72% · 85 ✗C. Hernandez WR · Low catches 5.9 (avg 7) · 67% · 9 ✗
vs
Stanford Cardinal
2-3 · SOS #14
Win 57-3
Week 5
Our number· model now
Wake Forest by 26
Total 52
DraftKings
WAKE -14.5
Total 54.5
Final Wake Forest by 54. Wake Forest beat the spread. 60 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -14.5 (open Wake Forest -12.75) · O/U 54.25 (open 54.5) · ML +430 / -600 · Wake Forest 82% no-vig · model vs market +11.5 pts, +14 pct pts (Wake Forest view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 68°F, Wind 9 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KINT)
ACC Network Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
C. High WR · Low rec yds 57 (avg 85) · 77% · 10 ✓C. Hernandez WR · Low catches 6.4 (avg 7.5) · 65% · 7 ✓D. Warren QB · Low pass yds 224 (avg 268) · 65% · 136 ✓
at
NC State Wolfpack
3-3 · SOS #67
Win 38-14
Week 6
Our number· model now
Wake Forest by 10
Total 58
DraftKings
WAKE -4
Total 56.5
Final Wake Forest by 24. Wake Forest beat the spread. 52 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -3.75 · O/U 56.5 (open 59.75) · ML -175 / +147.5 · NC State 39% no-vig · model vs market -6.2 pts, -11 pct pts (NC State view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 68°F, Wind 9 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRDU)
CW/ESPN Unlmtd Carter-Finley Stadium
at
California Golden Bears
3-4 · SOS #48
Win 41-7
Week 7
Our number· model now
Wake Forest by 20
Total 54
DraftKings
WAKE -10
Total 54.5
Final Wake Forest by 34. Wake Forest beat the spread. 48 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -10 (open Wake Forest -8.75) · O/U 54 (open 53.5) · ML -372.5 / +292.5 · California 24% no-vig · model vs market -10.0 pts, -15 pct pts (California view)
Game-time weather: 74°F, Wind 3 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (LBNL1)
ESPN2 California Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Emory RB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 25) · 75% · 56 ✗J. Foley WR · Low rec yds 80 (avg 109) · 74% · 45 ✓J. Brousseau QB · High pass yds 188 (avg 155) · 66% · 81 ✗
vs
Virginia Cavaliers
4-4 · SOS #54
Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-17 · 81%
Our number
Wake Forest by 13
Total 47
DraftKings
WAKE -12.5
Total 49.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -12.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML +400 / -570 · Wake Forest 81% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, 0 pct pts (Wake Forest view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 67°F, Wind 7 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN2 Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · B. Pribula QB · Low rush yds 21 (avg 24) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Middlebrook RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 64) · 75%J. Foley WR · Low rec yds 67 (avg 93) · 73%
vs
Merrimack Warriors
3-5 · SOS #66
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 44-3 · 100%
Our number
Wake Forest by 41
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ACC Network Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
at
#19 SMU Mustangs
6-1 · SOS #70
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 27-27 · 51%
Our number
dead even
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
J. Foley WR · Low rec yds 65 (avg 93) · 74%
at
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2-5 · SOS #43
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 33-21 · 79%
Our number
Wake Forest by 12
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bobby Dodd Stadium
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Haynes RB · Low rush yds 70 (avg 86) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · T. Maddox RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 47) · 75%
vs
Duke Blue Devils
5-2 · SOS #90
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 30-21 · 71%
Our number
Wake Forest by 9
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
J. Foley WR · Low rec yds 67 (avg 93) · 73%N. Sheppard RB · Low rush yds 90 (avg 125) · 72%N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 67%

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+12.2

21st in FBS

Adj. offense

32.1

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

19.8

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	37.4	15 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	19.4	30 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.94	15 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	4.62	9 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	166.1	71 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	282.3	16 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	112.7	15 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	209.1	77 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.29	8 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.29	136 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.57	24 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.43	46 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.27	5 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.03	33 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	49.3%	15 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	40.7%	67 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	17.6%	4 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	8.6%	8 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.1%	41 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	8.7%	4 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	5.35	1 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.39	31 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 31	42 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 26	25 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	64.6	82 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.14	34 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.39	3 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.09	13 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.01	53 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	50.0%	13 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	49.0%	19 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	16.5%	60 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	43.8%	3 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	28.3%	50 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	49.4%	20 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	42.2%	102 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	71.3%	30 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	47.3%	24 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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