Matchup analysis
Our model projects Wake Forest 30, Virginia 17 at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Wake Forest wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.4 points and 46.6 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Virginia is 4-4 against the 54th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+8.7 per game). Wake Forest (No. 14) is 6-1 against the 47th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 19.4 points per game (+18 per game).
Expect Virginia to find it hard going: Wake Forest's strong defense (20th) outranks Virginia's below-average offense (91st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense). Wake Forest's strong offense (28th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.1 points against an average defense) meets Virginia's strong defense (39th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Wake Forest puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Virginia by 9 and Wake Forest by 36 about 80% of the time.
Wake Forest gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wake Forest by about 11.3. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Virginia / Wake Forest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wake Forest -12.5 | 49.5 | +400 / -570 |
| DraftKings | Wake Forest -12.5 | 49.5 | +390 / -520 |
| FanDuel | Wake Forest -12.5 | 49.5 | +430 / -600 |
| BetRivers | Wake Forest -12.5 | 49.5 | +400 / -590 |
| BetMGM | Wake Forest -12.5 | 49.5 | +400 / -525 |
| theScore Bet | Wake Forest -12.5 | 49.5 | +425 / -650 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Wake Forest -12.5 | 49.5 | +400 / -600 |
| Pinnacle | Wake Forest -13.5 | 49.5 | +390 / -525 |
| Bovada | Wake Forest -13 | 49.5 | +390 / -550 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wake Forest win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wake Forest -13.5 | 46.6 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Wake Forest -12.5 | 49.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Wake Forest -12.5 | 50.2 | 81% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wake Forest win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference 0 pts
- Margin
- model Wake Forest -13.4 · market Wake Forest -12.5 · difference +0.9 pts (Wake Forest view)
- Total
- model 46.6 · market 49.5 · difference -2.9
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Wake Forest 81%.
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Wake Forest than the market.
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Virginia vs Wake Forest: stat comparison
| Stat | Virginia | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3#73 | 37.4#15 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6#32 | 19.4#30 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#116 | 6.94#15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39#54 | 4.62#9 |
| Rushing yards per game | 182.8#54 | 166.1#71 |
| Net passing yards per game | 181.6#115 | 282.3#16 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.3#68 | 112.7#15 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.8#38 | 209.1#77 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#5 | 0.29#8 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#50 | 0.29#136 |
| Sacks per game | 1.88#78 | 2.57#24 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.38#135 | 1.43#46 |
| Stat | Virginia | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#77 | +0.27#5 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#74 | -0.03#33 |
| Success rate | 45.5%#43 | 49.3%#15 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#58 | 40.7%#67 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#104 | 17.6%#4 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#70 | 8.6%#8 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#55 | 15.1%#41 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#35 | 8.7%#4 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.38#45 | 5.35#1 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87#76 | 3.39#31 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#53 | own 31#42 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#24 | own 26#25 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4#56 | 64.6#82 |
| Stat | Virginia | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#88 | +0.14#34 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#68 | +0.39#3 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#103 | -0.09#13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#57 | +0.01#53 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7%#43 | 50.0%#13 |
| Passing success rate | 43.9%#54 | 49.0%#19 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6%#63 | 16.5%#60 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.7%#135 | 43.8%#3 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.4%#18 | 28.3%#50 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.7%#128 | 49.4%#20 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.9%#26 | 42.2%#102 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.5%#60 | 71.3%#30 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1%#79 | 47.3%#24 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Virginia schedule · Wake Forest schedule · all Week 9 projections
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