2026 schedule

Virginia Cavaliers

4-4SOS #57

2026 season so far

Virginia is 4-4 against the 57th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+8.7 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Virginia ranks 61st of 139 FBS teams overall — 90th on offense and 39th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Wake Forest in Week 9. We project Virginia 16, Wake Forest 30 — Virginia wins 18% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
NC State Wolfpack
0-1 · SOS #67
Win 34-8
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Virginia by 5.6
Total 53.8
DraftKings
UVA -4
Total 50.5
Final Virginia by 26. Virginia beat the spread. 42 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -4 (open Virginia -3.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 54.5) · ML +139.5 / -165 · Virginia 60% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +5 pct pts (Virginia view)
ESPN Scott Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
vs
Norfolk State Spartans
1-2 · SOS #153
Win 59-3
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Virginia by 41.2
Total 49.8
DraftKings
UVA -47.5
Total 56.5
Final Virginia by 56. Virginia beat the spread. 62 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -47.25 (open Virginia -44.75) · O/U 56.5 (open 54.75) · model vs market -6.0 pts (Virginia view)
ACCNX Scott Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
West Virginia Mountaineers
3-0 · SOS #56
Loss 27-38
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Virginia by 5.3
Total 53.9
DraftKings
UVA -10.5
Total 51.5
Final West Virginia by 11. West Virginia beat the spread. 65 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -10.75 (open Virginia -9) · O/U 51.5 (open 52.5) · ML +305 / -395 · Virginia 76% no-vig · model vs market -5.4 pts, -13 pct pts (Virginia view)
ACC Network Bank of America Stadium
vs
Delaware Blue Hens
2-2 · SOS #116
Win 42-3
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Virginia by 14
Total 54
DraftKings
UVA -19.5
Total 52.5
Final Virginia by 39. Virginia beat the spread. 45 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -19.75 (open Virginia -20.25) · O/U 52.5 · ML +800 / -1425 · Virginia 89% no-vig · model vs market -5.7 pts, -7 pct pts (Virginia view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 68°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCHO)
ACC Network Scott Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Silver RB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 52) · 75% · 49 ✓D. Lofton WR · Low rec yds 50 (avg 86) · 79% · did not playS. Wilson WR · Low rec yds 67 (avg 96) · 74% · 4 ✓
at
Florida State Seminoles
3-2 · SOS #10
Loss 7-38
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 1.3
Total 51.7
DraftKings
UVA -1.5
Total 51.5
Final Florida State by 31. Florida State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -1.25 (open Virginia -2) · O/U 51.5 · ML -126 / +6 · Florida State 47% no-vig · model vs market +2.6 pts, +7 pct pts (Florida State view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 84°F, Wind 3 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTLH)
ESPN2 Doak Campbell Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed
Well-protected short dogShort dog · YPP + protection · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, better in yards per play and much better at avoiding sacks: Record 109 hits, 80 misses (58% hit rate) over 189 graded games · 2026: 9-3Short dog · YPP + protection: hit Big-yardage short dogShort dog · much better YPP · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 218 hits, 191 misses (53% hit rate) over 409 graded games · 2026: 13-12Short dog · much better YPP: hit
vs
Syracuse Orange
2-3 · SOS #77
Win 28-25
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Virginia by 5.1
Total 51.5
DraftKings
UVA -14
Total 49.5
Final Virginia by 3. Syracuse beat the spread. 53 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -14 (open Virginia -9.5) · O/U 49.25 (open 50) · ML +347.5 / -460 · Virginia 78% no-vig · model vs market -8.9 pts, -15 pct pts (Virginia view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F, Wind 9 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCHO)
ACC Network Scott Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · T. Hill RB · Low rush yds 79 (avg 96) · 75% · 118 ✗Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · A. Miller RB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 34) · 75% · 12 ✓B. Pribula QB · High pass yds 213 (avg 192) · 55% · 113 ✗
at
#24 SMU Mustangs
5-1 · SOS #74
Loss 13-23
Week 7
Our number· pregame
SMU by 7.7
Total 51.3
DraftKings
SMU -10
Total 51.5
Final SMU by 10. The spread landed exactly on the number. 36 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -10 (open SMU -8.25) · O/U 51.75 (open 53.25) · ML +275 / -345 · SMU 74% no-vig · model vs market -2.3 pts, -5 pct pts (SMU view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)
CW/ESPN Unlmtd Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
K. Raphael RB · TD threat 67% · 0 ✗
vs
Duke Blue Devils
5-2 · SOS #90
Loss 16-19
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Duke by 0.7
Total 49.3
DraftKings
UVA -2.5
Total 47.5
Final Duke by 3. Duke beat the spread. 35 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -2.5 · O/U 47.5 · ML +112 / -135 · Virginia 58% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -10 pct pts (Virginia view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 52°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCHO)
ESPN Scott Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit
Well-protected short dogShort dog · YPP + protection · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, better in yards per play and much better at avoiding sacks: Record 109 hits, 80 misses (58% hit rate) over 189 graded games · 2026: 7-3Short dog · YPP + protection: hit Big-yardage short road dogShort road dog · better YPP · 2014–25 Road underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 125 hits, 94 misses (57% hit rate) over 219 graded games · 2026: 7-5Short road dog · better YPP: hit
High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded gamesConference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: hit (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 82% · 1 ✓
at
#14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
6-1 · SOS #47
Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM
Week 9
Proj 16-30 · 18%
Our number
Wake Forest by 14
Total 46
DraftKings
WAKE -12.5
Total 49.5
We're 1.5 points higher on Wake Forest than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -12.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML +400 / -570 · Wake Forest 81% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +1 pct pts (Wake Forest view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 67°F, Wind 7 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN2 Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · B. Pribula QB · Low rush yds 21 (avg 24) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Middlebrook RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 64) · 75%J. Foley WR · Low rec yds 67 (avg 93) · 73%
vs
California Golden Bears
3-5 · SOS #50
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 31-19 · 79%
Our number
Virginia by 12
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Scott Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · A. Emory RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 29) · 75%B. Pribula QB · High pass yds 187 (avg 171) · 57%
vs
North Carolina Tar Heels
4-3 · SOS #12
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 21-21 · 50%
Our number
dead even
Total 42
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Scott Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
at
Virginia Tech Hokies
6-2 · SOS #114
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 21-27 · 36%
Our number
Virginia Tech by 6
Total 48
DraftKings
VT -1.5
Total 53.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Virginia Tech than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia Tech -1.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +105 / -125 · Virginia Tech 53% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +10 pct pts (Virginia Tech view)
Lane Stadium
High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third

Times shown in your local time

Virginia Cavaliers stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+1.5

61st in FBS

Adj. offense

24.5

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

23.0

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	28.3	73 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	19.6	32 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.41	116 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.39	54 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	182.8	54 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	181.6	115 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	154.3	68 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	185.8	38 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.25	5 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.00	50 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.88	78 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	3.38	135 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.07	77 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.06	74 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	45.5%	43 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	40.1%	58 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	11.3%	104 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.7%	70 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	14.7%	55 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	11.9%	35 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.38	45 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.87	76 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 31	53 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 26	24 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	67.4	56 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.04	88 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.10	68 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.10	103 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.02	57 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	46.7%	43 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	43.9%	54 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	16.6%	63 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	22.7%	135 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	25.4%	18 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	32.7%	128 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	33.9%	26 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	64.5%	60 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	61.1%	79 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

Free weekly projections email

One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.