Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Virginia 28.3, Syracuse 23.2 at Scott Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Virginia wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.1 points and 51.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Syracuse is 2-2, scoring 34.8 and allowing 23 points per game (+11.8 per game). Virginia is 3-2, scoring 33.8 and allowing 18 points per game (+15.8 per game).
Virginia's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th) should limit Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense). Virginia's middle-of-the-pack offense (70th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.4 points against an average defense) meets Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (72nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Virginia puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Syracuse by 17 and Virginia by 28 about 80% of the time.
Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Virginia by about 3. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Syracuse 25, Virginia 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.1 points and the total by 1.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Syracuse / Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Virginia -9.5 → Virginia -14 | 50 → 49.25 | +347.5 / -460 |
| Bovada | Virginia -9.5 → Virginia -14 | 49.5 → 49 | +285 / -370 |
| DraftKings | Virginia -9.5 → Virginia -14 | 50.5 → 49.5 | +410 / -550 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Virginia -5 | 51.5 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Virginia -14 | 49.3 | 78% |
| Blended projection | Virginia -12.5 | 50.2 | 80% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Virginia win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 78% · difference -15 pts
- Margin
- model Virginia -5.1 · market Virginia -14 · difference -8.9 pts (Virginia view)
- Total
- model 51.5 · market 49.25 · difference +2.3
Model margin is 8.9 pts more toward Syracuse than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Syracuse 23.2, Virginia 28.3 | Virginia 63%right winner | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| New formula | Syracuse 23.4, Virginia 28.1 | Virginia 62%right winner | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Final: Syracuse 25, Virginia 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Syracuse vs Virginia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Syracuse | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.8#44 | 33.8#52 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0#64 | 18.0#35 |
| Yards per play | 5.91#85 | 5.68#100 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.26#51 | 5.05#34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.0#57 | 188.2#51 |
| Net passing yards per game | 285.0#24 | 215.0#79 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.5#86 | 162.8#83 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 167.0#29 | 145.4#9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75#133 | 0.20#7 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#56 | 1.40#23 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75#29 | 2.40#44 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#109 | 4.00#135 |
| Stat | Syracuse | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#58 | +0.10#67 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#33 | +0.06#81 |
| Success rate | 44.0%#59 | 48.7%#19 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#62 | 39.7%#61 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3%#60 | 11.5%#101 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#102 | 12.2%#83 |
| Havoc rate | 16.5%#21 | 15.3%#39 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7%#60 | 10.8%#22 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.62#110 | 4.54#45 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.28#26 | 4.37#110 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#14 | own 31#43 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#72 | own 26#32 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 79.3#3 | 71.0#24 |
| Stat | Syracuse | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#47 | +0.05#87 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#60 | +0.17#45 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#123 | +0.23#133 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.20#9 | -0.15#15 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#58 | 49.3%#27 |
| Passing success rate | 40.9%#87 | 48.0%#32 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5%#90 | 14.7%#41 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.1%#29 | 21.2%#133 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.1%#21 | 22.4%#10 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.7%#17 | 33.8%#119 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.7%#29 | 36.6%#58 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.3%#99 | 71.4%#24 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.3%#75 | 72.7%#119 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Syracuse schedule · Virginia schedule · all Week 6 projections
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