Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected SMU 29.5, Virginia 21.8 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: SMU wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.7 points and 51.3 combined points.
Virginia is 4-2, scoring 32.8 and allowing 19.2 points per game (+13.6 per game). SMU (No. 24) is 4-1, scoring 34.6 and allowing 23 points per game (+11.6 per game).
Expect Virginia to find it hard going: SMU's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd) outranks Virginia's middle-of-the-pack offense (76th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense). SMU's strong offense (33rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Virginia's middle-of-the-pack defense (50th); that mismatch is where most of SMU's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Virginia by 15 and SMU by 30 about 80% of the time.
SMU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour SMU by about 5.6. The game is on CW/ESPN Unlmtd.
Result: Virginia 13, SMU 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.3 points and the total by 15.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Virginia / SMU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | SMU -8.25 → SMU -10 | 53.25 → 51.75 | +275 / -345 |
| DraftKings | SMU -7.5 → SMU -10 | 53.5 → 51.5 | +285 / -360 |
| Bovada | SMU -9 → SMU -10 | 53 → 52 | +265 / -330 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | SMU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | SMU -7.5 | 51.3 | 69% |
| Market consensus | SMU -10 | 51.8 | 74% |
| Blended projection | SMU -9.5 | 52.4 | 74% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- SMU win probability
- model 69% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model SMU -7.7 · market SMU -10 · difference -2.3 pts (SMU view)
- Total
- model 51.3 · market 51.75 · difference -0.5
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Virginia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Virginia 21.8, SMU 29.5 | SMU 69%right winner | 2.3 | 15.3 |
| New formula | Virginia 21.4, SMU 30.9 | SMU 73%right winner | 0.5 | 16.4 |
Final: Virginia 13, SMU 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Virginia vs SMU: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Virginia | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.8#52 | 34.6#47 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.2#39 | 23.0#65 |
| Yards per play | 5.63#101 | 7.26#13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.15#42 | 5.26#48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 187.0#54 | 143.4#104 |
| Net passing yards per game | 198.0#94 | 348.6#3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.0#85 | 163.2#83 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 167.5#25 | 165.0#23 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.17#2 | 1.40#129 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#41 | 0.80#88 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17#54 | 3.40#6 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.50#134 | 1.20#38 |
| Stat | Virginia | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#69 | +0.15#42 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#81 | +0.01#50 |
| Success rate | 48.3%#26 | 47.5%#34 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#53 | 37.5%#34 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#93 | 15.6%#17 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6%#70 | 11.5%#67 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#50 | 16.4%#21 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4%#33 | 11.7%#39 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.68#30 | 3.78#98 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.14#93 | 4.06#86 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#34 | own 34#10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#14 | own 26#22 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#40 | 67.8#46 |
| Stat | Virginia | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#80 | +0.02#101 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#50 | +0.27#27 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#119 | -0.03#39 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#39 | +0.05#73 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.4%#26 | 44.0%#79 |
| Passing success rate | 47.3%#33 | 54.9%#8 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#54 | 21.6%#125 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4%#120 | 34.6%#41 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.1%#13 | 26.1%#36 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3%#119 | 50.8%#15 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%#52 | 27.5%#5 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.7%#26 | 70.1%#33 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.1%#118 | 69.0%#111 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Virginia schedule · SMU schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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