2026 schedule

SMU Mustangs

6-1SOS #70

2026 season so far

SMU (No. 19) is 6-1 against the 70th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.4 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+15.3 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings SMU ranks 28th of 139 FBS teams overall — 24th on offense and 42nd on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at Syracuse in Week 9. We project SMU 33, Syracuse 25 — SMU wins 69% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
Florida State Seminoles
1-1 · SOS #13
Win 27-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 0.9
Total 54.9
DraftKings
SMU -3
Total 52.5
Final SMU by 3. The spread landed exactly on the number. 51 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -3 (open SMU -2.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5) · ML -162.5 / +137.5 · Florida State 41% no-vig · model vs market +3.9 pts, +12 pct pts (Florida State view)
ESPN Doak Campbell Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
vs
UC Davis Aggies
2-1 · SOS #86
Win 56-10
Week 2
Our number· pregame
SMU by 32.3
Total 54.9
DraftKings
SMU -32.5
Total 59.5
Final SMU by 46. SMU beat the spread. 66 points — over the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -32.5 (open SMU -27) · O/U 59.25 (open 58.5) · ML +1600 / -4000 · SMU 94% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, +4 pct pts (SMU view)
ACCNX Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
#23 Louisville Cardinals
2-1 · SOS #17
Loss 31-41
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Louisville by 1
Total 61.8
DraftKings
LOU -3
Total 57.5
Final Louisville by 10. Louisville beat the spread. 72 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisville -3 (open Louisville -1.25) · O/U 57.5 (open 58) · ML +7.5 / -128.5 · Louisville 54% no-vig · model vs market -2.0 pts, -1 pct pts (Louisville view)
ESPN2 L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
vs
Missouri State Bears
1-3 · SOS #108
Win 34-24
Week 4
Our number· pregame
SMU by 32
Total 57.6
DraftKings
SMU -30.5
Total 60.5
Final SMU by 10. Missouri State beat the spread. 58 points — under the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -30.5 (open SMU -34.75) · O/U 60.5 (open 58.75) · ML +2500 / -9000 · SMU 96% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +2 pct pts (SMU view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 84°F, Wind 9 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)
ACC Network Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. Dubar RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 39) · 77% · 76 ✗Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · R. Green Jr. RB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 53) · 77% · 27 ✓K. Raphael RB · TD threat 80% · 1 ✓
vs
Boston College Eagles
2-3 · SOS #61
Win 25-16
Week 5
Our number· pregame
SMU by 20.7
Total 50.9
DraftKings
SMU -21.5
Total 55.5
Final SMU by 9. Boston College beat the spread. 41 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -21.5 (open SMU -20.75) · O/U 55.25 (open 56.75) · ML +862.5 / -1575 · SMU 90% no-vig · model vs market -0.8 pts, +1 pct pts (SMU view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 73°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)
CW/ESPN Unlmtd Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Elite 114-37 (typical 60%) · M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 71 (avg 91) · 75% · 74 ✓Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · E. Dickens RB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 54) · 77% · 22 ✓K. Raphael RB · TD threat 75% · 1 ✓
vs
Virginia Cavaliers
4-3 · SOS #54
Win 23-13
Week 7
Our number· pregame
SMU by 7.7
Total 51.3
DraftKings
SMU -10
Total 51.5
Final SMU by 10. The spread landed exactly on the number. 36 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -10 (open SMU -8.25) · O/U 51.75 (open 53.25) · ML +275 / -345 · SMU 74% no-vig · model vs market -2.3 pts, -5 pct pts (SMU view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)
CW/ESPN Unlmtd Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
K. Raphael RB · TD threat 67% · 0 ✗
vs
California Golden Bears
3-5 · SOS #48
Win 59-20
Week 8
Our number· pregame
SMU by 16.6
Total 53
DraftKings
SMU -18.5
Total 55.5
Final SMU by 39. SMU beat the spread. 79 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -18.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +725 / -1100 · SMU 88% no-vig · model vs market -1.9 pts, -2 pct pts (SMU view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)
CW Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank 3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
K. Raphael RB · TD threat 69% · 3 ✓
at
Syracuse Orange
3-4 · SOS #77
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 33-25 · 69%
Our number
SMU by 8
Total 58
DraftKings
SMU -10
Total 58.5
We're 2 points higher on Syracuse than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -10 · O/U 58.5 · ML -367.5 / +287.5 · Syracuse 25% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +7 pct pts (Syracuse view)
Indoors (dome).
ESPN2 JMA Wireless Dome
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · T. Hill RB · Low rush yds 73 (avg 78) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Johnson RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 27) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Miller RB · Low rush yds 65 (avg 60) · 75%
vs
Virginia Tech Hokies
6-2 · SOS #111
Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 31-25 · 68%
Our number
SMU by 6
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Gerald J. Ford Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
vs
#14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
6-1 · SOS #47
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 27-27 · 49%
Our number
dead even
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
J. Foley WR · Low rec yds 65 (avg 93) · 74%
at
#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6-1 · SOS #49
Sun, Nov 22, 12:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 19-39 · 9%
Our number
Notre Dame by 20
Total 58
DraftKings
ND -17.5
Total 56.5
We're 2.5 points higher on Notre Dame than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Notre Dame -17.5 · O/U 56.5 · ML +750 / -1200 · Notre Dame 89% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +2 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Notre Dame Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
Defensive bounce-back favStudy · Lean Favorite covers: Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: Record 170 hits, 113 misses (60% hit rate) over 283 graded games (n=283) · Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Raphael RB · Low rush yds 64 (avg 92) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Jennings QB · Low rush yds 14 (avg 17) · 78%K. Jennings QB · Low pass yds 222 (avg 295) · 70%
at
Stanford Cardinal
4-4 · SOS #14
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 37-19 · 88%
Our number
SMU by 18
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Stanford Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. Ford RB · Low rush yds 82 (avg 85) · 78%K. Raphael RB · TD threat 78%

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SMU Mustangs stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+9.4

28th in FBS

Adj. offense

32.5

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

23.1

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	36.4	20 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	21.1	48 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	7.05	11 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.12	33 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	164.1	78 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	315.3	7 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	144.4	55 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	170.6	19 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.00	92 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.57	118 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	3.00	12 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.14	26 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.21	15 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.01	49 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	49.0%	17 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	37.5%	28 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	15.1%	22 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.0%	52 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.7%	29 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	11.2%	28 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.13	66 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.08	98 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 34	6 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 26	13 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	68.0	48 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.03	95 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.38	4 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.03	65 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.01	45 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	46.8%	41 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	52.0%	11 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	20.4%	119 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	38.3%	15 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	24.1%	9 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	44.2%	44 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	28.9%	5 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	71.7%	27 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	71.9%	125 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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