Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisville 31.4, SMU 30.4 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Louisville wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 61.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
SMU (No. 16) is 2-0, scoring 41.5 and allowing 17 points per game (+24.5 per game). Louisville (No. 23) is 1-1, scoring 48.5 and allowing 27 points per game (+21.5 per game).
SMU's strong offense (16th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd); that mismatch is where most of SMU's projected points come from. Louisville's strong offense (19th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.2 points against an average defense) meets SMU's strong defense (20th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisville puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between SMU by 22 and Louisville by 24 about 80% of the time.
Louisville gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field SMU would be favoured by 1.1. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: SMU 31, Louisville 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9 points and the total by 10.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (SMU / Louisville) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisville -1.25 → Louisville -3 | 58 → 57.5 | +7.5 / -128.5 |
| DraftKings | Louisville -1.5 → Louisville -3 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +120 / -142 |
| Bovada | Louisville -1 → Louisville -3 | 59.5 → 57.5 | -105 / -115 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisville win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisville -1 | 61.8 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Louisville -3 | 57.5 | 54% |
| Blended projection | Louisville -2.5 | 58.0 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisville win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 54% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Louisville -1 · market Louisville -3 · difference -2.0 pts (Louisville view)
- Total
- model 61.8 · market 57.5 · difference +4.3
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward SMU than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | SMU 30.4, Louisville 31.4 | Louisville 53%right winner | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| New formula | SMU 30.9, Louisville 30.6 | SMU 51%wrong winner | 10.3 | 10.5 |
Final: SMU 31, Louisville 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
SMU vs Louisville: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | SMU | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.5#34 | 48.5#17 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.0#55 | 27.0#102 |
| Yards per play | 9.32#2 | 8.60#7 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.58#36 | 5.50#85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.5#112 | 230.5#30 |
| Net passing yards per game | 440.0#1 | 333.0#11 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.5#90 | 125.5#65 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 144.5#29 | 251.0#109 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#121 | 0.00#27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#78 | 1.00#76 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#46 | 0.50#130 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#30 | 1.50#74 |
| Stat | SMU | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.47#1 | +0.28#8 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#20 | +0.09#101 |
| Success rate | 61.1%#1 | 50.2%#13 |
| Success rate allowed | 32.4%#13 | 39.2%#55 |
| Explosive play rate | 20.0%#4 | 19.4%#5 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#36 | 9.0%#20 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8%#111 | 10.6%#123 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#25 | 11.3%#40 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.93#88 | 4.96#20 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.25#102 | 4.08#90 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#34 | own 31#62 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#51 | own 28#67 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.0#97 | 65.5#76 |
| Stat | SMU | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08#119 | +0.15#35 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.91#1 | +0.43#8 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.18#16 | +0.00#75 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#54 | +0.15#111 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.4%#30 | 51.7%#33 |
| Passing success rate | 67.9%#3 | 53.7%#23 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9%#95 | 15.9%#49 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.0%#17 | 35.4%#38 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.3%#56 | 19.8%#15 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 54.2%#24 | 50.0%#42 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 14.3%#2 | 32.3%#49 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.6%#73 | 74.0%#35 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.0%#113 | 43.7%#27 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: SMU schedule · Louisville schedule · all Week 3 projections
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