Matchup analysis
Our model projects SMU 37, Stanford 19 at Stanford Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: SMU wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.3 points and 56.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
SMU (No. 19) is 6-1 against the 85th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.4 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+15.3 per game). Stanford is 4-4 against the 33rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 35.5 points per game (-15.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: SMU's strong offense (24th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) against Stanford's below-average defense (115th). SMU's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd) should limit Stanford's below-average offense (105th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between SMU by 41 and Stanford by 4 about 80% of the time.
Stanford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. SMU is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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SMU vs Stanford: stat comparison
| Stat | SMU | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.4#20 | 19.9#124 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1#48 | 35.5#132 |
| Yards per play | 7.05#11 | 5.63#103 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.12#33 | 6.52#125 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.1#78 | 127.0#122 |
| Net passing yards per game | 315.3#7 | 237.3#55 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.4#55 | 197.1#117 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 170.6#19 | 248.8#120 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#92 | 0.63#41 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#118 | 0.63#101 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#12 | 0.88#134 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#26 | 1.63#57 |
| Stat | SMU | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#15 | +0.06#82 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#49 | +0.21#130 |
| Success rate | 49.0%#17 | 40.0%#111 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.5%#28 | 47.0%#130 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1%#22 | 11.9%#90 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#52 | 15.1%#130 |
| Havoc rate | 15.7%#29 | 11.1%#127 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#28 | 11.6%#31 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#66 | 3.81#92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08#98 | 5.50#138 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#6 | own 25#136 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#13 | own 30#96 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#48 | 64.8#79 |
| Stat | SMU | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#95 | -0.04#119 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.38#4 | +0.13#52 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#65 | +0.18#132 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#45 | +0.24#123 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#41 | 40.2%#105 |
| Passing success rate | 52.0%#11 | 39.7%#93 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4%#119 | 18.7%#94 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.3%#15 | 24.8%#126 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.1%#9 | 39.4%#131 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2%#44 | 36.2%#106 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.9%#5 | 49.0%#130 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.7%#27 | 60.0%#80 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.9%#125 | 83.9%#137 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: SMU schedule · Stanford schedule · all Week 13 projections
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