Matchup analysis
Our model projects SMU 31, Virginia Tech 25 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: SMU wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.9 points and 55.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Virginia Tech is 6-2 against the 111th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35 and allowing 20.5 points per game (+14.5 per game). SMU (No. 19) is 6-1 against the 70th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.4 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+15.3 per game).
Virginia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (46th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense) meets SMU's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Virginia Tech puts up. SMU's strong offense (24th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Virginia Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (50th); that mismatch is where most of SMU's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Virginia Tech by 16 and SMU by 29 about 80% of the time.
SMU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour SMU by about 4.8. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Virginia Tech vs SMU: stat comparison
| Stat | Virginia Tech | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.0#34 | 36.4#20 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5#38 | 21.1#48 |
| Yards per play | 5.94#76 | 7.05#11 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.84#17 | 5.12#33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.0#85 | 164.1#78 |
| Net passing yards per game | 267.4#27 | 315.3#7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 104.4#7 | 144.4#55 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.9#31 | 170.6#19 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#24 | 1.00#92 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#121 | 0.57#118 |
| Sacks per game | 3.25#7 | 3.00#12 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.88#125 | 1.14#26 |
| Stat | Virginia Tech | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#67 | +0.21#15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#75 | +0.01#49 |
| Success rate | 45.6%#41 | 49.0%#17 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4%#43 | 37.5%#28 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#48 | 15.1%#22 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#99 | 11.0%#52 |
| Havoc rate | 18.0%#6 | 15.7%#29 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#70 | 11.2%#28 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.35#47 | 4.13#66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.44#36 | 4.08#98 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#23 | own 34#6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#82 | own 26#13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.8#10 | 68.0#48 |
| Stat | Virginia Tech | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#99 | +0.03#95 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#49 | +0.38#4 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#42 | +0.03#65 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#92 | -0.01#45 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1%#59 | 46.8%#41 |
| Passing success rate | 44.5%#49 | 52.0%#11 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.8%#121 | 20.4%#119 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.2%#27 | 38.3%#15 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.2%#28 | 24.1%#9 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4%#75 | 44.2%#44 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1%#11 | 28.9%#5 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.2%#78 | 71.7%#27 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.6%#66 | 71.9%#125 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Virginia Tech schedule · SMU schedule · all Week 10 projections
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