Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida State 27.9, SMU 27 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Florida State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 54.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
SMU has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Florida State is 1-0, scoring 34 and allowing 17 points per game (+17 per game).
SMU's strong offense (24th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) meets Florida State's strong defense (34th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points SMU puts up. Florida State's strong offense (38th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.6 points against an average defense) meets SMU's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between SMU by 22 and Florida State by 23 about 80% of the time.
Florida State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field SMU would be favoured by 1.2. The game is on ESPN.
Result: SMU 27, Florida State 24. SMU won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 3.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (SMU / Florida State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | SMU -2.5 → SMU -3 | 52.5 → 53.5 | -162.5 / +137.5 |
| Bovada | SMU -2.5 → SMU -3 | 52.5 → 54.5 | -170 / +145 |
| DraftKings | SMU -3 | 52.5 | -155 / +130 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida State -1 | 54.9 | 52% |
| Market consensus | SMU -3 | 53.5 | 41% |
| Blended projection | SMU -2.5 | 54.1 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida State win probability
- model 52% · market (no-vig) 41% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model Florida State -0.9 · market SMU -3 · difference +3.9 pts (Florida State view)
- Total
- model 54.9 · market 53.5 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Florida State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | SMU 27.0, Florida State 27.9 | Florida State 52%wrong winner | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| New formula | SMU 25.4, Florida State 30.1 | Florida State 61%wrong winner | 7.7 | 4.5 |
Final: SMU 27, Florida State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
SMU vs Florida State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | SMU | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.2#26 | 33.0#22 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5#32 | 22.0#43 |
| Yards per play | 6.59#22 | 7.12#9 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62#50 | 5.29#32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.3#89 | 232.6#10 |
| Net passing yards per game | 282.8#13 | 261.6#29 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.7#18 | 149.2#43 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 289.2#135 | 189.0#27 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.46#117 | 1.17#91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.62#9 | 1.00#69 |
| Sacks per game | 2.69#16 | 2.42#30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#31 | 2.00#86 |
| Stat | SMU | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#55 | +0.13#22 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09#19 | +0.04#88 |
| Success rate | 42.3%#71 | 45.8%#32 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7%#57 | 42.4%#78 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#38 | 16.8%#6 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1%#24 | 10.1%#22 |
| Havoc rate | 11.7%#92 | 11.4%#101 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#54 | 11.8%#64 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.52#17 | 4.09#50 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.03#9 | 4.24#108 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#93 | own 30#69 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#111 | own 30#80 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5#77 | 69.4#35 |
| Stat | SMU | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#69 | +0.13#16 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#59 | +0.12#33 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14#6 | +0.05#102 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#41 | +0.02#76 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.2%#96 | 50.2%#9 |
| Passing success rate | 43.1%#48 | 40.3%#78 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0%#87 | 12.3%#2 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.7%#53 | 37.4%#12 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3%#114 | 30.5%#82 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2%#66 | 50.0%#10 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#28 | 38.1%#46 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.4%#9 | 67.9%#31 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 41.3%#5 | 67.6%#115 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: SMU schedule · Florida State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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