Matchup analysis
Our model projects SMU 33, Syracuse 25 at JMA Wireless Dome in Week 9. That is a solid edge: SMU wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.4 points and 58.3 combined points.
SMU (No. 19) is 6-1 against the 70th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.4 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+15.3 per game). Syracuse is 3-4 against the 77th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 26.3 points per game (+5.3 per game).
SMU's strong offense (24th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th); that mismatch is where most of SMU's projected points come from. Expect Syracuse to find it hard going: SMU's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd) outranks Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between SMU by 30 and Syracuse by 15 about 80% of the time.
Syracuse gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. SMU is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (SMU / Syracuse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | SMU -10 | 58.5 | -367.5 / +287.5 |
| DraftKings | SMU -10 | 58.5 | -360 / +285 |
| FanDuel | SMU -10.5 | 58.5 | -385 / +290 |
| theScore Bet | SMU -10.5 | 58.5 | -360 / +280 |
| BetRivers | SMU -10 | 58.5 | -420 / +310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | SMU -10.5 | 58.5 | -425 / +300 |
| BetMGM | SMU -10 | 58.5 | -375 / +300 |
| Pinnacle | SMU -10 | 58.5 | -349 / +278 |
| Bovada | SMU -10 | 58.5 | -350 / +275 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Syracuse win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | SMU -7.5 | 58.3 | 31% |
| Market consensus | SMU -10 | 58.5 | 25% |
| Blended projection | SMU -9.5 | 58.6 | 26% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Syracuse win probability
- model 31% · market (no-vig) 25% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model SMU -7.4 · market SMU -10 · difference +2.6 pts (Syracuse view)
- Total
- model 58.3 · market 58.5 · difference -0.2
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Syracuse 23%.
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Syracuse than the market.
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SMU vs Syracuse: stat comparison
| Stat | SMU | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.4#20 | 31.6#50 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1#48 | 26.3#93 |
| Yards per play | 7.05#11 | 5.79#90 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.12#33 | 5.59#68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.1#78 | 180.3#56 |
| Net passing yards per game | 315.3#7 | 283.9#14 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.4#55 | 157.6#73 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 170.6#19 | 190.9#45 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#92 | 1.29#123 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#118 | 0.86#69 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#12 | 2.43#39 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#26 | 2.43#108 |
| Stat | SMU | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#15 | +0.11#53 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#49 | +0.02#56 |
| Success rate | 49.0%#17 | 43.3%#63 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.5%#28 | 42.5%#85 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1%#22 | 11.8%#93 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#52 | 13.7%#110 |
| Havoc rate | 15.7%#29 | 16.4%#18 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#28 | 12.9%#56 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#66 | 3.67#104 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08#98 | 4.11#101 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#6 | own 32#36 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#13 | own 30#93 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#48 | 80.1#1 |
| Stat | SMU | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#95 | +0.08#66 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.38#4 | +0.13#54 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#65 | +0.13#122 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#45 | -0.08#29 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#41 | 45.1%#58 |
| Passing success rate | 52.0%#11 | 41.6%#67 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4%#119 | 17.7%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.3%#15 | 29.7%#97 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.1%#9 | 28.6%#57 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2%#44 | 44.4%#39 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.9%#5 | 38.2%#62 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.7%#27 | 56.8%#98 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.9%#125 | 66.7%#103 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: SMU schedule · Syracuse schedule · all Week 9 projections
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