Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected SMU 43.6, UC Davis 11.3 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: SMU wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 32.3 points and 54.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
UC Davis is 2-0, scoring 40 and allowing 20.5 points per game (+19.5 per game). SMU (No. 17) is 1-0, scoring 27 and allowing 24 points per game (+3 per game).
UC Davis plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why SMU's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between SMU by 10 and SMU by 55 about 80% of the time.
SMU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour SMU by about 30.2. The game is on ACCNX.
Result: UC Davis 10, SMU 56. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.7 points and the total by 11.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UC Davis / SMU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | SMU -27 → SMU -32.5 | 58.5 → 59.25 | +1600 / -4000 |
| Bovada | SMU -29.5 → SMU -32.5 | 58.5 → 59 | — / — |
| DraftKings | SMU -24.5 → SMU -32.5 | 58.5 → 59.5 | +1600 / -4000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | SMU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | SMU -32.5 | 54.9 | 98% |
| Market consensus | SMU -32.5 | 59.3 | 94% |
| Blended projection | SMU -32.5 | 59.1 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- SMU win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model SMU -32.3 · market SMU -32.5 · difference -0.2 pts (SMU view)
- Total
- model 54.9 · market 59.25 · difference -4.4
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UC Davis 11.3, SMU 43.6 | SMU 98%right winner | 13.7 | 11.1 |
| New formula | UC Davis 17.9, SMU 40.4 | SMU 91%right winner | 23.5 | 7.7 |
Final: UC Davis 10, SMU 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UC Davis vs SMU: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UC Davis | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4 | 32.2#26 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.2 | 20.5#32 |
| Yards per play | 7.30 | 6.59#22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34 | 5.62#50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.6 | 149.3#89 |
| Net passing yards per game | 277.2 | 282.8#13 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.9 | 127.7#18 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 236.5 | 289.2#135 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31 | 1.46#117 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.15 | 1.62#9 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.69#16 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38 | 1.38#31 |
| Stat | UC Davis | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.04#55 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | -0.09#19 |
| Success rate | 49.2% | 42.3%#71 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 40.7%#57 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.8% | 13.5%#38 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 10.1%#24 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 11.7%#92 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 11.6%#54 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.77 | 4.52#17 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40 | 3.03#9 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | own 29#93 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | own 31#111 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 65.5#77 |
| Stat | UC Davis | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.03#69 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.06#59 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | -0.14#6 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.06#41 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.3% | 41.2%#96 |
| Passing success rate | 48.5% | 43.1%#48 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7% | 19.0%#87 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2% | 31.7%#53 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.8% | 33.3%#114 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0% | 41.2%#66 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 36.0%#28 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.5% | 74.4%#9 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.6% | 41.3%#5 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UC Davis schedule · SMU schedule · all Week 2 projections
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